In 2023,一线资讯 under the influence of multiple factors such as the central bank of the central bank, gold performed well.From the perspective of futures price, COMEX Gold has increased by 13.45%in 2023, the largest annual increase in 2020.On December 4, 2023, the international gold price broke through the $ 2100/ounce mark, and hit a maximum of US $ 2152.3/ounce, a record high.
Entering 2024, the market currently looks at multiple gold prices.A number of experts interviewed by a reporter from the Securities Daily said that gold prices may still have a chance to hit a new high in 2024.
"Under the expectations of the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, gold still has the opportunity to impact historical highs in early 2024." Liu Siyuan, chief analyst of Lingxiu Finance, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the trend in the second half of 2024 wasThe shortness may counterattack, so the gold price may show the trend of "rushing back and high" throughout the year.
Yu Xiaoming, a senior investment consultant of Jufeng Investment Consulting, told reporters: "The price of gold in 2024 may continue to rise and set a new record. On the one hand, global inflation pressure continues to weaken, and the tone of the major central banks in 2023 has begun to change.The super 'eagle faction' becomes ease, and eventually turns to 'partial pigeon' before the end of last year, which will benefit the gold price. On the other hand, the market is expected to start at the end of the first quarter of 2024, and the Fed will start to cut interest rates. This will also promote the rise in gold prices.","
According to Wind data, in 2023, the US dollar index fell by about 2.04%, the largest decline in 2020, which was in sharp comparison with the increase in international gold prices during the same period.
According to CITIC Securities Research Report, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike cycle may be over, and the US interest rate may usher in a steering after a period of time.Signs of the decline of developed economies have been appeared, and the long -term long -term is continuously optimistic about the rise in the gold price center.
Liang Haiming, Dean of the Silk Road Zhigu Research Institute and the director of the "Belt and Road" Research Institute of Hainan University, said in a reporter from the Securities Daily that in addition to the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cuts, the global elections of many countries, the continuous international geopolitical risks, and the global inflation.Factors such as complete solutions have the opportunity to promote the price of gold, and strongly challenge $ 2,200/ounce or even 2,300 US dollars/ounces.
Yang Haiping, a researcher at the Institute of Securities and Futures Research and the General Manager of the Research and Development Department of the Bank of China University of Finance and Economics, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that "the end of the Federal Reserve’ s interest rate hike cycle and when to open the interest rate reduction channel "will become the most important factor affecting the trend of gold prices.
Specifically, Liang Haiming believes that it is necessary to pay attention to the timing of US interest rate cuts and the rate of interest rate cuts.At the same time, we must pay attention to whether the central banks such as Europe and Japan will follow the interest rate cut and their interest rate cuts immediately.Once the monetary policy of many European and American countries has shifted, the global investment portfolio will be reorganized, and funds are likely to flow to the gold market, which will affect the price of gold.
Liu Siyuan said that the Fed needs to start interest rate cuts this year to assist the economy "soft landing". As a result, the US dollar index may fall below 100, which will help gold.At the same time, in addition to the main influencing factors of the Fed's monetary policy, global geopolitical risks are still fermented, and the risk aversion attributes of gold are still very strong.The global central bank is expected to continue to buy gold in 2024, bringing a lot of spot demand to the market.
Yang Haiping said that with the promotion of global de -US dollar, risk aversion, and value preservation, the global central bank's extension of gold will continue to provide strong support for gold prices.In 2024, the price of gold will be hovering at a high position, and the high probability of gold price innovation is very high.
Article Source: Securities Daily
Picture source: Baidu Picture
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Original title: "[Authoritative point of view] International gold price will reach 13% in 2023 and will reach a new high in 2024?"