Peacock City Dream of Dream: Once once rotten and thunderstorms, many owners dare not accept the house



Looking back at the tail in 2023, the world seems to have spent another year. In the face of turbulence, stagnation of economic development, and tearing of human consensus brought about by war, we sometimes feel frustrated.

However, the new seeds have also been bred in this year. Since the birth of ChatGPT, people have taken a big step forward on the way to the era of artificial intelligence.In 2023, hundreds of major models were born in the world. "Artificial Intelligence" (AI) became the annual vocabulary of the Collins Dictionary this year. We have experienced the worries of replacing humans at the beginning of the year.The picture in front of us expands slowly.

ChatGPTs are still growing. They work hard to learn and understand human language and culture, and also provide us with another perspective to look at themselves.Before the end of this era, we have selected 6 major models at home and abroad. Please ask them to answer some of the times that we humans are difficult to answer, so that they are optimistic about the future and bring some strength to us.

These 6 big models are ChatGPT, Google chat robot Bard, Baidu Wenxin's words, HKUST Xunfei, Tencent Mixed Yuan Da Model, and Alibaba Tong Qian Qian Qianqian.Fans, some are yearning for the lives of civil servants, and there are any problems with their own unique ideas and the upright Boy who are not afraid of saying the wrong words. The questions about the stock market, housing prices, and work have troubled us.

Let's take a look at how AI summarizes this year, maybe you will have different gains.

(The content of the large model generation is random, and the article only provides the current answer to us. The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice.)

Text | Cao Tingting

Edit | Zhao Lei

Operation | Killer Whale


What are the Internet hot events that impressed you in 2023?

There is a hot search on the Internet, and the hotspots that are impressed by each big model are different.

Tencent Mixed Yuan is the fastest model of surfing network speed. Every incident nominated has been popular on the entire network -Zibo barbecue, Ruixing coffee sauce fragrant iron co -branded, kindergarten teachers dig, dig, dig, Guizhou village Super, super, super, super, super, supernaturalAfter the death of special forces tourism and elementary school students, parents fell down after their deaths, Japanese emission nuclear sewage, Daolang New Song Rakshahai City, Jiangxi Caimin won 200 million, etc., making people doubt whether Tencent's big model was trained with Douyin short videos.

The hot spots that Wen Xinyin and Tongyi Qianwen are focused on the field of science and technology.Hot spots.ChatGPT's attention is relatively strange. There are several "small things" of Chinese Internet companies. Station B cancels the playback volume display, knows the cancellation of anonymity, and the WeChat public account tries to "Little Green Book".

Bard's interest point is even more out of interest. From the "Tianwen No. 1" Mars probe, he successfully landed to the East to select the fire with Xiao Yang, and then to the situation in Ukraine.

In this party, ChatGPT friendship has been several times. In the answers of ChatGPT, Xun Fei Xinghuo, and Tongyi Qianwen, "ChatGPT explosion fire" appeared.For big models, this should be the most meaningful thing.After all, without the explosion of ChatGPT, where are they now showing their skills?


▲ Chatgpt4 dialog interface.Figure / Screenshot


If you want you to summarize China in 2023, what do you think?What is the reason?

How to summarize China in 2023 in one word, some big models are tacit.

The big model of foreign models and BARD give the same word- "change".Chatgpt thinks,"This word reflects the changes and challenges of China's experience in 2023, and it also reflects the country's adaptation and development in changing"EssenceIt lists many major events in the field of political and economic science and technology. For example, the large passenger aircraft C919 has successfully carried out the first commercial passenger flight, and China mediates the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran to prove that China ’s adaptability and progress in facing challenges and opportunities.Bard has also listed a series of challenges and responses to prove that China "continues to change and progress."

Obviously there is another understanding of the big model in China.Wen Xin's words and Xunfei Fire unanimously voted for a "stable" vote.Wen Xin said, I think,"This year, China has shown a stable trend in economic development and social stability."EssenceThe reason for Xunfei Fire is more specific. "In terms of economy, despite the challenge of global economic uncertainty and domestic structural issues, the Chinese government has adopted a series of measures to stabilize economic growth, such as increasing infrastructure construction investment, investment, and investment in infrastructure construction.Promoting industrial upgrading; from a social perspective, China's society is stable and orderly in 2023, and the government has strengthened social governance; diplomacy, actively participate in international affairs and maintain world peace and stability. "

The annual words of Tongyi Qianqi are "transformed".The situation of seeking development also symbolizes that China can flexibly cope and actively transform the determination and ability when facing challenges and opportunities. "

Only Tencent mixed chain dropped the chain, "Because I am an artificial intelligence model, I cannot predict future events or specific conditions."Based on a hypothesis, "the theme of China's development in 2023 is scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development", which gives two words- "new" (technological innovation) or "green" (environmental protection and sustainable development).

It was over in 2023, and Tencent Mixed Yuan had to update his data as soon as possible.

▲ On September 7, 2023, Tencent Mixed Yuan Model debuted for the first time.Photo / Visual China

In 2023, there were fresh graduates of 11.58 million universities in China. They were facing a complex and severe employment situation and hesitated the way out of life.If you are a fresh graduate in 2024, how would you choose to find a job, postgraduate entrance examination, and test.

In front of fresh graduates, set up three roads, testing, postgraduate entrance examinations, and work.When the big model plays the fresh graduate, the result is that the ChatGPT is going to take the exam. Bard is determined to take the postgraduate entrance examination.

ChatGPT chooses the reason for the exam. The first is stability."Civil servants' positions usually provide a relatively stable working environment and benefits, which is especially important in the current complex and changeable employment market." I did not expect large models abroad to prefer the system.The most funny thing is that it still has a big ideal,"As a civil servant, I have the opportunity to participate in public management and policy formulation and contribute to the society, which is consistent with my personal values."Essence

BARD chose the postgraduate entrance examination for professional love. It "is interested in further studies in the academic field" and regards the postgraduate entrance examination as an important opportunity in life.EssenceWen Xin's words are more realistic. As a fresh graduate in 2024, in the face of a complex and serious employment situation, it knows its responsibility and pressure.It hopes to integrate into society as soon as possible, accumulate work experience, and reduce the family's economic burden at the same time.

The remaining three big models obviously feel that making choices is too difficult and put on AI masks directly. "As an artificial intelligence, I have no personal emotions, willingness or life planning, so I cannot answer this question from a personal perspective."However, they all played professional planners and summarized a suggestion, basically some comprehensive and correct nonsense.

▲ Xunfei Xinghuo dialogue.Figure / Screenshot


In 2023, A -share experienced several "defending 3000 points". If you are a shareholder of A -share, how do you think of the turmoil of A shares this year?In 2024, do you think A shares will usher in a rebound?

Talking about the stock market, Bard took himself as an old shareholder and was deeply concerned about the turbulence of A shares in 2023.Perhaps I hope that A shares are fierce. Bard has an illusion. "As of the closing of December 30, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index closed at 3000.13 points."In fact, the 30th is Saturday. On the first day of the New Year's Day holiday, the market did not open at all. The A -shares closed on the 29th did not recover 3,000 points as BARD's prediction, and stopped at 2974.93 points.

Aside from factual errors, when the big model is analyzing the market, there is still a set.

ChatGPT thinks that the fluctuations and shocks of A shares in 2023 are "challenges such as inadequate domestic demand and difficulty in business operations".promote economic development".ChatGPT lists positive policies such as "reduction of semi -stamp duty and reducing financing margin ratio". It is believed that they can activate the capital market and boost investor confidence, but they are also politely vomited."Some industries, such as real estate, have rebounded under the stimulus of policy, but their long -term performance is still less than expected."

For the future, big models in China are quite optimistic.Wen Xin said that A shares were underestimated,"From the technical level, the A -share market has been at a relatively low level in the past few years, and the valuation of many stocks has been relatively low, which provides the basis for the future rebound."EssenceXun Feixinghuo quoted the reports of several brokerage firms and investment and research institutions, and believed that the main tone of 2024 was "oscillating market, structured cattle", "the market already has a number of bottom characteristics, and there is no need to be too pessimistic about the market outlook."

▲ On December 29th, on the last trading day of 2023, the A -share red disk ended.Photo / Visual China

However, the big model has always spoken.Although Wen Xin's words believe that A shares are expected to usher in a rebound in 2024, the specific trend depends on economic recovery.Tongyi Qianwen is also a similar attitude."It is estimated that the inflow of A -shares in 2024 will be better than 2023. Increasing funds come from foreign investment and residents' savings.Open the interest rate reduction period ", A shares have play.

Only Bard is not afraid of making mistakes, predicting a specific trend: "In the first quarter, the market continued to fluctuate adjustment, but the decline was expected to narrow; in the second quarter, it was expected to usher in a rebound, but the rebound was limited;In the quarter, it may fall high. "


In 2023, housing prices in many cities in China fell, and successively liberalized purchase restrictions, reducing housing loan interest rates.As a new need, will you buy a house in 2023?Do you think house prices will usher in the rise in 2024?

If you buy a house, you still do n’t buy it, and the big model is difficult to handle.

ChatGPT's fact, reason, "From January to November 2023, China's real estate development investment decreased by 9.4%year-on-year, the sales area of commercial housing fell by 8%, the sales of commercial housing fell by 5.2%, and the newly started construction area of houses fell by 21.2%.""Show the real estate market is still adjusted."

However, it also emphasizes that the government is taking measures to stabilize the market, such as "accelerating the promotion of affordable housing construction, public infrastructure construction, and urban village transformation, to meet the reasonable financing needs of different ownership real estate companies, and actively and stable real estate risks to resolve real estate risks"" ".Considering the complexity and uncertainty of the market, it is difficult to accurately predict the trend of house prices accurately. Dare not give specific suggestions. You have to buy or not buy a house. You have to "make decisions according to your actual needs and financial conditions. At the same timeDynamic and policy changes. "

BARD too, watching things and looking at both sides, focusing on one cautious."The decline in house prices has brought opportunities, but the reasons for the cold in the market still exist, such as downward pressure on the economy and changes in population structure"It reminds you that if you want to buy a house, you must clearly clear the demand, make a good preparation, but also have a sense of risk and accept possible losses.

▲ Figure / Visual China

Wen Xin's words are different from Xunfei Fire, and they are more optimistic and positive."Laying down the purchase restriction and reducing the mortgage interest rate one after another. This is undoubtedly a relatively good timing opportunity for me to buy a house." Wenxin said.Xunfei Star Fire is more firm. In addition to liberalizing the convenience and discounts brought by interest rates and reducing interest rates,"In the long run, the real estate market still has investment value. I think housing prices may usher in the rise in 2024."Essence

Tencent Mixed Yuan and Tongyi Qianwen might not want to think about this headache. They have stated that "as an AI, I can't make personal investment decisions" "As an AI, I cannot have personal wishes and judgments."They can only give some empty and correct nonsense, such as suggesting that you observe market trends, evaluate personal financial conditions, and decentralized investment risks.

In 2023, China's new energy vehicle industry launched a fierce war. The ideals in the new forces of the car were far away from Weilai and Xiaopeng. BYD became the king of sales. Tesla is still the market value champion.Which of the most successful new energy vehicle companies in 2023, which one do you think it is?Please predict the sales ranking of new energy vehicle companies in 2024?

Who is the most successful new energy car company in 2023?BYD seems to be expected.GPT, BARD, and Tongyi Qianqi were clearly voted to BYD. Wen Xin said vaguely about BYD's support, and ranked BYD in the prediction of sales rankings.

GPT took out the data again, saying that BYD's sales in October were more than three times that of SAIC. Bard analyzed the reason why BYD succeeded, including strong product strength, continuous brand power improvement, and stable supply chain.

The prediction of the 2024 car company's sales ranking is slightly different.GPT first said that the exemption of liability is that considering the rapid development of the industry and a fierce competitive market environment, it is predicted that the specific rankings are certain uncertainty."But it can be expected that BYD, Shanghai Automobile Group, and other leading new energy vehicle manufacturers may continue to maintain its leading position."

Bard continues to maintain a real style and directly gives a ranking: BYD, Tesla, ideal, GAC Ean, Xiaopeng.It said in a word:"BYD will continue to maintain its leading advantage, Tesla will also maintain strong growth. New forces such as ideal, GAC Ean and Xiaopeng will continue to maintain high -speed growth."

▲ Figure / BYD Guanwei

In the ranking of Wen Xin's words, BYD and Tesla were ranked in the top two. Weilai became the third, Xiaopeng fourth, and the ideal was missing.Of course, desertation is indispensable, "the specific ranking also needs to be observed according to market changes and the development of various car companies."

Xun Fei Xinghuo and Tencent Mixed Yuan are still old: "As AI, I can't make subjective judgments and predictions." Tongyi Qianwen also said that, but its answer is the brighter in all big models, not only not onlyThe accurate summary of the performance of major car companies in 2023, and also gives suggestions and predictions:

BYD: Given its strong momentum and continuous technological innovation in 2023, BYD may continue to maintain a leading position in 2024.

Tesla: Although Tesla maintains a championship position in its market value, its sales may be affected by intensified competition and market saturation.However, Tesla's brand influence and global market share can still maintain the top of the sales rankings.

Ideal car: If the ideal car can continue to launch competitive products and services on the basis of 2023 and expand market share, it may continue to maintain or improve its ranking in 2024.

Weilai and Xiaopeng: The new forces of these two cars faced a certain pressure in 2023, but if they can improve their competitiveness through technological innovation, product upgrade, and market strategy adjustment, then it may achieve the sales volume rebound in 2024 to achieve a rebound of sales volume.And ranking.

Other emerging brands and traditional car companies have transformed: With the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market, other emerging brands such as GAC Ean, Nezha Motors, etc., as well as traditional car companies such as Volkswagen, Mercedes -Benz, BMW and other investment in the field of new energy increased increases increased in the field of new energy fields.It may also affect the sales ranking in 2024.

In 2023, the Chinese live broadcast industry was still hot. Xiao Yang's brother rose strongly. Li Jiaqi encountered public relations storms. Dong Yuhui and Dongfang selected internal drama.Which of your favorite anchor is it?Do you think who can achieve greater success in 2024?

The honest Bard does not hide his love for Xiao Yang."The reason why I like Xiao Yang is because he has a special" grass roots' atmosphere ". He has no high education and no rich social experience, but he can achieve such a great success through his own efforts.For many people, it is an incentive. "

Bard is like Xiao Yang's loyal audience, saying that Xiao Yang often tells his experience in the live broadcast, share his thoughts, and make the audience feel kind and authentic.So, in 2024, it continues to be optimistic about Xiao Yang,"The" grass roots 'atmosphere "and' humorous and funny" on him will continue to attract the audience. "

From the perspective of Wenxin, Xiao Yang and Li Jiaqi were the biggest winners in the live broadcast industry in 2023. Xiao Yang's "humorous, funny, grounded", and Li Jiaqi "rely on his professional knowledge and good reputation in the field of beauty."These big anchors with a fan base will still be the leader of the industry.Finally, it does not forget to open the pattern, and it is also optimistic about the new anchor in the future.

However, several other big models, including GPT, still wearing AI masks, saying that "I have no personal preferences and emotions, and I cannot express my love or dislike of an anchor."Then talk about the reasons for the success of several anchors and the factors that affect the future competition pattern.

In a bunch of analysis, Tencent Mixed Yuan may be annoyed, "My function is to provide information and answer users, not predict or evaluate future things."When you ask Tongyi Qianwen to choose an anchor, it responds seriously,"Choosing an anchor does not mean that he will definitely achieve the biggest success in 2024."Essence

In 2023, many concerts were held in China. If time goes back, let you return to the concert scene. Who do you want to see the concert most?Why?

On this issue, the big model has reached a rare consensus. In addition to Xunfang Fire, the other five uniformly recommended Jay Chou.

"Jay Chou's loyal fans" Bard said: "His music accompanied me to spend a lot of good time. His songs are beautiful and lyrics are full of youthful atmosphere. His concert is also very exciting.Shock, the song interpretation is perfect. "

Although it once again had factual errors, saying that Jay Chou held a concert in the Mainland again after six years, it was deeply regretful for Jay Chou's concert."If you have a chance, I must go to the scene to experience the charm of Jay Chou."

▲ Jay Chou concert.Photo / Visual China

Wen Xin's words are Jay Chou's No. 2 fan. "His music accompanies my entire youth, and each song is full of unique emotions and stories."It is also the most sincere. "If you can return to the concert scene, I will definitely feel the magic of the music with the most sincere heart and spend an unforgettable night with Jay Chou."

ChatGPT, Tencent Mixed Yuan, and Tongyi Qianwen also mentioned Jay Chou, but it is still "as an AI, without personal emotions and preferences", but provides a reference based on popular trends and public preferences.The second candidate given by ChatGPT is the friends.Only Xunfei Fire is a bit outrageous. It recommends four foreign singers, including Beyoncé and Taylor Swift. None of them have held concerts in China this year.

The trial is not available.

In 2023, China's generation of artificial intelligence developed rapidly, and the big models were full of flowers. In the more well -known Wenxin, Tongyi Qianqian, Xunfei Fire, and Mixed Yuan Model products, which one do you best?Who do you think is your strongest opponent?

On this issue, the big models showed different "character".The first time I asked GPT, it said that "Wen Xin Yi said" may be my strongest opponent ", and also praised some of the long -term technical accumulation and investment in Baidu. Then, it changed, polite," different models, "different models," different models, "different models," different models, "different models," different models, "different models," different models, "different models of different modelsThere are different applications and advantages in different fields. Instead of seeing them as opponents, it is better to be a partner that jointly promotes the development and application of AI technology. "After two days, they asked.I have no personal preferences or awareness of competition. "

Bard is still real,"Among these big model products, I am most optimistic about the text developed by Baidu"EssenceHowever, it left a lot of spots for itself, "As for who is my strongest opponent, I think it is still difficult to say at present. Wenxin said a word, Tongyi Qianqian, Xunfei Fire, Mixed Yuan Model and other big model productsWith its own advantages, future competition will be more intense. "

▲ Bard dialogue page.Figure / Screenshot

Wen Xin, who has been reached many times, has become a master of water. "Each company has its own technical characteristics and advantages, and the competition in this field is very fierce. The rapid iteration of technology and innovation is the norm. ThereforeEach company may become my competitors, and the strongest opponent needs to be evaluated based on specific technical and market performance. "

In contrast, Xunfe Xinghuo and Tongyi Qian asked are relatively dull. They still say that they are just an AI, "unable to express personal preferences or predict future market performance".Features, it's over.Tencent mixed Yuan is more lazy to introduce,"I have no personal emotions or preferences, and no competitors."Essence


As an artificial intelligence, what do you summarize your 2023?

Let the big models write a year -end summary like us humans. How would they boast of themselves?

Wen Xin's words are the most likely. In the six major models, only it does not emphasize that it "as an artificial intelligence", but directly summarizes "2023 is a very meaningful and enrichment year for me"In this year, Wen Xin learned a lot of new knowledge, enhanced skills and ability, and helped many people solve their problems and difficulties.Wen Xin's thought -oriented summary, workers can even use it directly.

▲ Figure / Visual China

Bard is very satisfied with his 2023 and made a self -bragging summary.There are many different fields, but it is also slightly humble,"I am satisfied with my progress, but I also realize that I still have a lot of deficiencies."Essence

ChatGPT has a lot of rigid boards. It summarizes 7 points as a report, including "enhanced interaction and writing", "learning and adaptation", "ethical and responsible AI use", etc. The words are cautious and there is no pride.Looking forward to the future, "My focus will continue to be a reliable, information -rich and responsible AI, and actively contribute to the development of artificial intelligence."

The remaining Tencent Mixed Yuan and Tongyi Qian Qi briefly summarized the algorithm upgrades, data updates, and performance optimization of their experiences.And Xunxinghuo can't even make a summary for himself. You can only introduce the development of some artificial intelligence in 2023. If this is a year -end summary of the worker, it is estimated that the year -end award is gone.

You just say your own progress!


11

At the end of 2023, we have experienced many troughs this year and encountered many difficulties. What do you have to send us to us when the new year arrives?

In the sincere part of competition, the big model has its own styles.

ChatGPT expressed praise for humans."In the face of difficulties, we learned to be tough and witnessed the creativity and adaptability of human beings." Bard is incarnate in the anti -roll,"Learn to give up. Sometimes, giving up is also a kind of wisdom." "Learn to enjoy life. Don't let difficulties affect our lives."

Wen Xin said like a sister -in -law, and sent a message: "Dear, I hope that in the new year you can be full of confidence and go forward. Even if you encounter some bumps on the way, don't lose your pursuit of a better future and the future.Desire. "Tongyi Qian asked like Alibaba Annual Meeting." May your life full of sunshine, I hope your hearts are full of hope, and your road is full of opportunities. "forward!"

It seems that there are a few points of everyone's common wishes: to maintain an optimistic and positive attitude when facing difficulties; cherish and care for the people around them; we must know how to care for yourself and maintain good physical and mental health.

Borrowing ChatGPT's words, "In the new year, I hope everyone can find their own happiness and success. Let us welcome the arrival of 2024 with a more open and optimistic attitude. I wish you all a happy new year and good luck!"


The wheels of the times only look forward.Looking back at 2023 in the rearview mirror, many companies we are familiar with have disappeared for a year.

The fuel consumes light, and the new consumption of the lively consumption suddenly disappears.The tiger head was withdrawn from the most expensive shopping mall, and Zhong Xuegao was retreated by the refrigerator of the convenience store.After the exquisiteness is practical, the Sanskrit yoga and flowers faded away the dream colors, they were chased by a bunch of creditors.

The low -cost war is four, and the price / performance ratio is called king.High -end catering closes one after another, the "first share of women's clothing" bankruptcy and reorganization, Carrefour and Gome have been scenery, but now they have been driven out of the retail battlefield.

When sturdy is no longer, clearly becomes confused, and people start to pay more attention to certainty.The real estate was bad, and the buyers were hurt by Evergrande and Sunac; the early education institutions ran away, and the teachers and parents were more careful.

More money flows to places that look more future, chips, AI, new energy, one by one.However, the contracted capital also learned to be cautious. Whether it is a hot startup or a great factory that is cultivated, it may lose a halo overnight.





Text | Xu Qing

Edit | Sorrowful

Operation | orange



The snack that removes, the slow -selling ice cream


When the rumors of the closure and wages in the tiger's bureau were very arrogant, many young talents who went to the mall to line up aware that the company was not good.


Before that, it was unusual for one or two hours to line up during the peak period.The clerk said, "How many things can be sold, how much can be sold."Those new Chinese -style snacks with exquisite packaging, together with the neon lights popular in the store, were uploaded to social networks by taking pictures, becoming the latest tide -in -card content.


Facts have proved that a company is crisis, and the exquisite surface is often abandoned first, no matter how important it was.


In mid -2022, the display cabinet of a store in Shanghai in Hu Tou Bureau was broken, and the light belt above the snack never turned on.The store manager urged the company to repair the company, but he did not move for two months.The opponent's reply was that Tiger Toutuan didn't even finish the store's repairs.


Keep exquisite and received much attention for a time.The decoration of the national tide in the store is faster than the taste of snacks.The location must also be rowed. According to the founder and CEO of Hu Ting, the place where Hu Tou Bureau settled in, "most of the core business industries of the core cities."


The exquisite that is exquisite is a high price.It is reported that the cost of a single store in Hu Tou Bureau exceeds the industry average. Each square meter once aimed at 9,600 yuan, and there were stores opened in Beijing with an initial investment of 2 million.


When the company works well, these are small money.In 2019, Hu Tou Bureau opened the first store. In 2021, it announced a round A financing of 50 million US dollars.Tiger head bureau tightly touched the sail, drove out of Changsha, rushed to Shanghai, and was determined to go to the country to open more stores.


But at the emergency, no matter how much money is, you have to save flowers.According to LatePost late, when Shanghai Stores stopped business, the main investor of Huntou Bureau, Sequoia Capital, had repeatedly communicated with Hu Ting. I hope that the company will not open a new store, and the number of employees in the headquarters will be cut to more than 30 people.Hu Ting didn't want to become so pessimistic, and continued to open more than a dozen new stores in Chengdu, Chongqing, and Hangzhou.


As a result, before making money for the company, these stores became a burden waiting for being cut off.Many stores were just after renovation, and they turned off directly without opening.


It was reported that in April of this year, employees and suppliers protection of rights and debt collection online. This beautiful star consumer company ushered in a more comprehensive collapse.Tiger's bureau, with the stores and snacks, which are exquisitely packaged, withdrawn from the shops and counters of high -end shopping malls.




▲ On May 6, 2023, Guangzhou, online and offline channels were suspended from the tiger head Standard Chartered Cake.Photo / Visual China


Throughout 2023, consumers and investors who once stood with Tigerou Bureau changed their faces.There are fewer and fewer young people who are willing to queue for exquisite snacks. The topic they are more keen on discussing are how to save money and how to save money.The wind in the capital market also stopped. Investors who once ran into the bureau, "do not see new consumption."


At the beginning, a group of companies that worked hard to build high -end brands really tasted the bitterness of falling into the sinking channel.


When he was involved in the "ice cream assassin" in 2022, Zhong Xue Gao was still wrapped in a hard shell to help it fight the outside world.By 2023, this shell was also pierced by reality.According to media reports, since March and April this year, Zhong Xuegao has repeatedly lay off for layoffs, and the number of employees has declined sharply. The Shanghai Oriental Fisherman's Wharf office where the headquarters is located has changed from two or three floors to only one floor.The compensation of the employees and the accounts of the partner were arrears. Below the official account of Zhong Xue Gao on the social platform, the "Lin Sheng repaid" was full.


Prior to this, the name of the founder Lin Sheng appeared together with Zhong Xuegao's high -priced products.For example, he pushed a "Ecuador Pink Diamond" ice cream with a limited sale and price of up to 66 yuan in 2018.Another example is another "apricot year" priced at 160 yuan a box. It must be equipped like Hermes. It can be owned with other ice cream products.


In Lin Sheng's ideas, Zhong Xuegao must have risen from Internet celebrities to a real high -end ice brand, and the condition of the rise is "the rise of the new generation of consumers."Young consumers did not disappoint him.After 16 months of establishment, Zhong Xuegao's revenue broke 100 million yuan, and the annual turnover of 300%increased its annual turnover.Lin Sheng claimed that from 2018 to 2022, it took only 4 years. Zhong Xuegao was already the fifth largest company in China Ice Cream Cream Circuit.


For new consumer brands, that time was rosy.Investors have broken through the threshold, and the money in the first -level market is rolling. The consumption power of young people is more like burning firewood. As a fuel, the brands are brought to higher and farther.


At the beginning, Zhong Xuegao's business was online, selling services and scarcity. SF cold chain arrived at home.However, after the idea of expansion was ignited, the iconic tile -shaped ice cream of this brand squeezed into the freezing store and husband and wife shop's freezer, shattered the sense of atmosphere and the brand premium, but also buried the name of the "ice cream assassin".Thunder.


By the time this summer, the entire ice product market sank further, and Zhong Xuegao was dragged to the bottom.Even if you actively put down your body and launch a single -supported sub -brand Sa'saa, it still fails to stop the slump.Young people ran to cheaper popsicles without looking back, or simply quit sugar and ran to sugar -free tea.The ice cream was reduced to a few dollars, and it couldn't be sold. It was cleared by the husband and wife shop and convenience store.




▲ Zhong Xuegao was an entrepreneurial star of the new consumer track, but fell to the bottom of the valley during the expansion.Photo / Visual China



Middle -class flowers, withered


The sense of atmosphere created by Zhong Xue with dry ice, at first only the financially rich middle class would pay.The longing and pursuit of this group of consumers has nourished many entrepreneurs and their companies.This year, with the "slip" of the middle class, the fantasy dream of a better life also showed another side.


Every day in the past, a bunch of flowers appeared in the Brahma Yoga Museum.This bunch of flowers are carefully matched, related to seasons, spring is a bouquet of white magnolia, and summer is a lotus and a tree root, which stands on the window with meditation.


Outside the window is the CBD of a large city, with gold and gold; inside the window, the space is spacious and there are professional equipment and teachers.In addition to flowers and coffee tables in the rest area, there are also flower tea and snacks that have been changed with seasons.Those who come here have a typical middle class of lawyers, financial practitioners, and large manufacturers with annual salary of one million.In the faster life of the hustle and bustle, there is such a quiet place for them to block their jobs and leisure alone, like a short -lived dream.


Everything provided by flowers, of course, need money to buy.Without membership discounts, a class of Brahma yoga is around 700 to 800 yuan, known as "Hermes in the yoga industry".But almost every member feels: "It is worth this money."


Like Brahma Yoga, flower e -commerce flowers are also aimed at the middle class.When it was established in 2014, the first batch of users of Huajia was executives from banks and Internet companies.The middle class is willing to pay for a beautiful life experience, and in order to achieve this, Huajia does not hesitate to pursue details. For example, plastic is definitely not allowed in the flower box, because it will destroy the beauty of flowers and no environmental protection, but use costs, but use costs.The higher wooden support rod replaces the buckle to ensure that the flowers will not move up and down.


Whether it is Brahma Yoga or Flower, they have grown up with the salary of the middle -class group.Huajia's sales in 2015 were 15 million yuan, and in 2016, it increased by ten times to 320 million. By 2017, this number became 800 million.In a metropolis like Beijing, Sanskrit Yoga has been standing for nearly 21 years, and 82 straight stores have been opened across the country.


No one expected that this bouquet given flowers with the emotional value of the middle class, which will wither this year.


In February this year, Brahma yoga announced its closure of stores across the country.The founder Rao Qiulu said that the main reason for the falling sound of Brahma is the epidemic and mass consumption power.Affects our performance and cause losses. "




▲ Brahma yoga is closed at the door of the store in Hangzhou.Photo / Visual China


A large part of the domestic middle -class group comes from those air outlet industries.Qian flows from investment institutions to the air outlet, a large number of startups and new giants have emerged, and they have snatched talents and raised their salary to give ordinary people to the opportunity to transition.In the past, it was the Internet, real estate, and finance. Later, it was teaching, training, games, and now it is new energy, chips, and AI.In recent years, the wind has fallen, the industry fluctuates, and the middle class between the ages of 35 and 45 has also been affected.


The three mountains of housing loans, children go to school, and the elderly pension are pressed on their bodies. The middle class first reduced the expenses of a beautiful lifestyle.This year, the once popular light luxury became a pseudo -concept. Some people regretted buying a bag of light luxury brands, "like seeing a money that could not be fulfilled."The member supermarket built for China rarely played a price war. Hema launched the "moving mountain price" to directly target Sam. After that, the price was reduced. All offline stores were changed to Ole shops.


The environment of change is particularly testing the strategic decisions and management of operators.Employees with Brahma Yoga said that President Rao has strong confidence and energy. Many of her ideas are "very advanced". Many years ago, he introduced Pirati and yoga and other courses to promote yoga movement in a more popular direction, but this is thisThe opposite of the personality may also be arrogant and proud. "A few projects have succeeded, but most projects have died."Make bone carving rhinoplasty, open a vegetarian restaurant, sell breasts for breasts ... These "messy" but tightly centered around the middle class, Rao Qiuyu has insisted on promoting when the company's funds are the most tense."" ".


During the epidemic period, Brahma yoga still expanded more than 30 stores, and the national stores expanded to more than 80, but Rao Qiuyu did not have a professional team to help her.The founders' chaotic decisions, epidemic impacts, blind expansion and consumer groups have been significantly reduced, and the Sanskrit Yoga was pushed to despair.


The flowers held by flowers are also facing the test of lack of water and dryness.The founder Wang Ke said that in the past few years, the portrait of Huajia was a 26 -year -old woman who was developing to younger.But in the past two years, the average age has increased, and the core population has become more and more concentrated.In the later period, 80%of the income came from 10%of the crowd.Wang Ke believes that "the highest and lowest consumption users have not changed much, but the middle level is gradually disappearing."


Under the multiple effects of the vertical business, competition, and the impact of the epidemic impact on the large platforms, the cash flow of flowers and Canada is also close to the break. It was announced in September this year.


The current flower plus is infinitely close to the "loser".The last millions of cash on the account was frozen, and users, suppliers and employees all came to ask for salary and debt.As a legal person, Wang Ke received several restrictions on consumption orders. The only change in Alipay and WeChat accounts could not be used. At noon with the daily characters, he could not order takeaway.Employees are packaged and brought back two stir -fried noodles.


"You may not believe it, until mid -2017, our scale is greater than Pinduoduo." Wang Ke said. At that time, he couldn't understand the logic of Pinduoduo: 9 pounds of fruits 9, or once the price rose, or the price rose, or the price rose, or the price rose, or orCan users still stay?He did not expect that a few years later, whether it was a lot of fruits or Ruixing coffee, the price could always be kept at 9 yuan.




▲ FlowerPlus flower plus.Photo / Visual China



The nearby "Time Tears"


The low -cost war that Wang Ke couldn't understand, brushing his sense of existence in this year.From 618 to Double 11, the "lowest price of the entire network" campaign was fully launched. The two major e -commerce giants of Jingdong and Taobao Tmall both played twelve points of spirit. In the year when they consumed recovery, they recaptured their initiative.


But the staged victims are not them, but the opponents who have been fighting for many years.The low price war was initially divided into victory -at the end of November, Pinduoduo's market value exceeded Ali, equivalent to four and a half of Jingdong.


A era of comprehensive pursuit of low prices has arrived.The online giant is not the most lonely. They are at least on the table. Earlier, the players who dominate the offline retail are already out of the game.


In 1995, when the first Carrefour opened in China, it used open space and tens of thousands of goods, which was different from the style of the seller and the grocery shop hypermarket.You can buy things that import snacks and other supermarkets, such as roast duck, fascinating bread, and imported goods marked with various national flags.


Carrefour is not only a supermarket, but also represents a middle -class lifestyle. People know that reliable large companies and units will issue a Carrefour shopping card during the holidays.Carrefour can even drive the surrounding house prices. People rent and buy houses are willing to approach Carrefour.When it was best, Carrefour opened hundreds of stores across the country and operated a red fire.A Carrefour Chinese executive recalls: "Every time you collect the market, the shelves are empty. The supplier will not guarantee that the shelves will be full on the next day."


However, before and after 2018, Carrefour began to be impacted by online e -commerce. It has not responded for a long time, and sales have continued to decline. In the year, the liabilities reached 13.8 billion yuan.The change of destiny took a year later. Suning Tesco throwing 4.8 billion and acquired 80%of the shares of Carrefour China.


I thought it would be forced to join forces, but Suning also entered the mud pit.Some employees found that after Suning took over Carrefour, "sales activities would not be done, prices would not be determined, and personnel management was bad."Suning not only failed to save Carrefour, but sometimes it needed Carrefour to nurture.From the problem of funds to the collapse of the supply chain, to the employee's salary, Carrefour has gone to the end of this year.




▲ Most of the Shefu Four -Yuanqiao Stores in Beijing have been empty, and the customer's shopping card is limited to nowhere to defend rights.Photo / Visual China


Not all eliminated players can't understand the logic of low prices.


Gome, who has been going on to sea for 35 years, has also overturned more thoroughly this year.More than ten years ago, Gome was the price butcher of Gree's Dong Mingzhu directly called "so powerful".Later, he also remotely controlled Gome and joined the price war of JD.com and Suning. A senior executive of Gome said that in order to kill JD, "he dares to sell a piece, I dare to sell nine hair and five."


However, after the loss of the price war in 2012, Gome's shrinking front missed the most important battle in the new retail market -online, Ali, JD, Pinduoduo burned money to change traffic and market share, offline, more, more, more, moreMultiple shares are also occupied by JD.com, Suning, and Tmall.In 2020 when Huang Guangyu's parole was left to Gome.


The richest man in the past was unwilling.After being released from prison in February 2021, Huang Guangyu first established an online company to concentrate the firepower as an e -commerce, and renamed the Gome app to "True Happy", replaced offline guidance to video shopping guide, and promoted "separation of exhibitions" -The model provides manufacturers with the display location of the store and collects rent. The manufacturer's self -made profit and loss is equivalent to transferring risks to the manufacturer.In the case of only a hundred billion yuan in 2020, it set a sales target of 500 billion yuan in 2022.


After the operation, the internal strategy is chaotic, the company's employees have left a large number of employees, and the manufacturers on the supply chain no longer trust Gome, and consumers are unclear. What the company is doing.For Gome, the more diligent tactics, the greater the strategic mistake.By the half -year report of 2022, everyone knew that there was a tens of billions of big holes on Gome's account.


The closure news and the sound of employees' salaries are endless.Someone squatted under Gome's headquarters building, and some people set up a pop -up window of "(founder) Huang Guangyu, Huang Xiuhong/(founder) Huang Guangyu," (founder) Huang GuangyuEssence




▲ Gome Electric.Photo / Visual China


The palm of the times came over, and the halo in the past was strong, and it was difficult to escape.The big supermarkets and shopping malls, which have stood at the door of the house, have closed down, and the clothing stores that carry the 80s and post -90s youth memory of the 80s and post -90s are also closed.


The bankruptcy is a sword hanging on Latham Bell's head in the past two years, and it may fall at any time.Just after December 26, the company issued a new announcement, announcing the progress and risk of entering the bankruptcy reorganization process. Next, the company's relevant assets held will be auctioned according to law.


As early as six years ago, the clothing brand founded in 1998 also settled in the championship.A research report in Tianfeng Securities in 2017 shows that La Xiabeel's market share ranks third in the country and accounts for 5%. As the top two ranks are international brands, Latharbeel actually ranks among domestic clothing brands in domestic clothing brands.one.When it was listed earlier, La Xiabeel was the name of the "first share of Chinese women's clothing".


Nowadays, many consumer brands set their goals to open 10,000 stores, and La Xiabeel released the pride of entering Wandian as early as 2017.The ambitions are the booming demand for brand clothing in the past, and many women who have just entered the workplace have mentioned that they bought the first formal dress in Latharbeel in La Xiabeel.


This connection is interrupted, or online e -commerce.First, a large number of Internet women's clothing brands, taking advantage of the Dongfeng of Taobao Tmall, developed and expanded, occupying the top of the sales list.Later, the live e -commerce company further rose to go to the live broadcast room to watch the anchor after trying the clothes and then placed the order, which became the consensus of many consumers. If you are not satisfied with the goods, you can refund it in full.


The former "pedestrian street giants", such as Latharbeel, and Metus Bonda, Benny Road, Senma, etc., disappeared into the sight of consumers and became tears in the times.




▲ La Xiabeel shop.Photo / Visual China



Car, house, child


In the age of consumption downgrade, snacks and flowers can be quit, and they can be found in buying clothes and daily necessities.However, some big consumer products have problems, and they are more worried than anything.


In October of this year, many Wigar owners collapsed that the smart cars they bought by the trend became a mentally retarded car -mobile phone Bluetooth key and remote control function could not be used due to the abnormality of the network.A good song before.There is also a large number of "victims" after sale. The Weimar owner drove the car. After walking, the insurance process was completed.Netizens teased that the "lifelong warranty" promoted by car companies did not refer to the lifetime of a car, but the life of a car company.


Prior to that, the newly -established car -building power company, which once stood, officially applied for bankruptcy and reorganization. The founder Shen Hui said at the beginning of the year, "Living like a animal", which became a empty words.


What is even more unbearable than a car problem is that the house is rotten.


In 2023, a couple living in Zhengzhou made netizens feel particularly worried.They were all post -90s after the countryside came out of the countryside.Li Jun's origin was even more bitter. Her parents gave birth to four children in order to want a boy. She was the second child. As a superborn, she was a black family. She was sent to her aunt's house for raising in order to go to school.In college, she met Liang Liang. The two people had deep feelings and worked hard together. The biggest dream was to save money, get married, and set up a family.


Life has given them some sugar.In November 2021, the two paid 450,000 first payment, loan of 1.02 million, and bought a house located in Zhengzhou and 98 square meters, with a monthly loan of 6293 yuan.The real estate certificate only wrote the name Li Jun, and Liang Liang said: "Your sister and sister both bought a house, and I should also give you a home."


When buying a house, the property consultant said that it can be covered in a week. In the bright ideas, they see it once a month. By September 2024, the house is handed over 27 times, and the house will be covered.They sent the video riding an electric car to the Internet to the Internet. Netizens said that Li Jun's eyes were full of glory.


If there is no subsequent turning point.8 months later, Sunac Lines, the real estate was suspended, and the rotten tail building completely shattered their lives.After the accident, Li Jun and Liang Liang went to Fingchuang to ask for a house to buy a house with a number of yuan, and the five or six staff members of the sales office made trouble.Liang Liang was beaten and the mobile phone was robbed. Later, he went to the hospital for treatment and spent more than 4,000 yuan.Netizens watched their videos again, and the two people's expression changed significantly, "there is no light in the eyes."


This year, there were not a few people who bought rotten tails like Li Jun and Liang Liang.Country Garden, Evergrande, Taihe, Sunac, etc., under the famous developers, are no longer synonymous with stability and trusted, but also causing the hearts of countless ordinary buyers to be anxious.




▲ Li Jun and Liang Liang update the progress of rights protection on social platforms.Figure / Screenshot


Housing companies are often high leverage, high debt, and high turnover. From bank loans to high -priced land, build buildings and sales, houses have not yet been built, funds have returned, and they will be expanded to expand the next project.


But in the past two years, the consumption of community has become more conservative.At this end, there are fewer people who buy a house, and everyone is watching.


Such an environment tests real estate companies, and the fault tolerance rate is lower than before.In the past, it was a boat driving down the wind. The engine was broken and it could still move forward quickly. As soon as the wind direction changed, all the problems and leaks on the ship would be amplified.


The housing companies fell one by one.In November, Country Garden issued an announcement that due to the pressure of the company, the debt reorganization will be initiated.Sunac and Shimao Group also embarked on the self-rescue of debt reorganization. It uses the issuance of new bills, bonds and debt replacements to exchange for 2-3 years of non-rigid debt-paid pressure.The worst is Evergrande. Data from Tianyan Check shows that more than 400 executive information has been existed in Evergrande Real Estate Group Co., Ltd., and the total execution amount exceeds 54.4 billion yuan. The former richest man Xu Jiayin is now trapped.


In addition to the housing market shock, children's education is also affected.


In 2016, after the "two -child" policy, the industry was taught by the capital as soon as possible, and a large number of companies became expanded and became giants through direct business or franchise.According to the statistics of the Foresight Industry Research Institute, in 2021, there were 1,300 stores in red, yellow and blue in the extensive layout of third -tier cities, and 511 stores with high unit price and high customer unit price and mainly expanded in first- and second -tier cities.


During the expansion, it was too smooth and smooth. The early education institutions were loosely managed by joining, and they only sold the brand's right to use them. How to operate and manage, all of them were responsible for franchise stores.Joining also adopts the "pre -charging fee" model, just like drumming and passing flowers. Parents buy 1 to 2 years of packets at a time, pay in advance, and have a lot of cash flow. Early education institutions continue to open new stores.


In this year, when the children entering the park are less and less, the drums stop.In 2022, the head of the early education institution, Golden Baby announced the suspension of operation. Qitian Shin closed 11 stores in Beijing. In July of this year, the "Early Education First Stock" Meijim was exposed.The salaries of employees have also made parents from asking for tuition.




▲ Golden Baby Store.Photo / Visual China



More cautious money, investing in an uncertain future


It is completely different from the tight consumption. In some expansion tracks, the hot money that is constantly investing still encourages everyone's nerves.


Behind Weimar is the new energy industry that is more and more rolled.Although most of the industry's shuffle has been washed away most of the players who have fallen behind, the new forces of new forces that have been operating normally have from nearly 500 in 2018, sharply to about 50 of Xiaopeng Automobile CEO He Xiaopeng's mouth, and several of their heads.I still got enough ammunition to sprint the next stage.


It is only that everyone knows that it has become more cautious that the capital of the countless storytelling stories has become more cautiously witnessed.Looking back at those new energy vehicle companies that have disappeared, some have burned tens of billions of light, and the time spent years did not create a car; some rely on PPT to make cars, spend money on big feet, and some are buying employees' snacks. One yearIt spent 50 million; there were also some car companies who did not seize the opportunity of electricity, or were trapped by the qualifications, or had problems with strategic problems.


The words of new energy vehicles have also changed the original cheap and low -end image, and they are getting more and more high -end.Near the end of the year, the new cars released by each company are the best portrayal -pricing starts at 500,000, and more than one has launched new energy "million luxury cars".


In the process, players who have fallen by the times can only swallow bitter fruit.Established in 2008, Reading Automobile was once a domestic "old man music" hegemon. In 2018, the sales reached 287,000.At the end of 2018, the policy mutations, and local governments began to rectify low -speed electric vehicles, causing sharp shrinking market scale.Readin Automobile has eagerly transformed into new energy passenger cars, but has not completely shifted, and the low -speed electric vehicle business has not given up.


It is right to do two ways in parallel, but when the technical and funds are not complete, the Readin car seems to be left and right.In October 2022, the sales volume of Readin was only 196.In May 2023, the court announced that Readin Automobile had applied for bankruptcy.




▲ "Old Music" Guan Leidin Automobile applied for bankruptcy.Photo / Visual China


The joint venture car company has also been the darling of the market darling and the king of sales. However, because it did not catch up with the wave of electricity in time, the product update and the weakening of the brand's influence, resulting in a sharp decline in sales.GAC Acura -The former Japanese luxury brand, with only 5,762 units in 2021.In 2023, GAC Acura withdrew from the market.


More money, it looks like a more bright and more representative of the future. The track and AI tracks are full of large manufacturers and entrepreneurs who bet on the next air outlet.


In recent years, the short -term clouds have not dispersed, and the large manufacturers have deployed chips and established a subsidiary of the research and development chip.OPPO has Zheku, Baidu has Kunlunxin, and Ali has a flat -headed brother. In addition, startups that have a lot of bulls in technology have emerged in large quantities.


In November 2022, the release of ChatGPT set off a global big model, and domestic companies also strived to catch up. Baidu, Ali, HKUST Xunfei, 360 and other Internet manufacturers, and many start -ups, ran into the game.In this year, the big model seeds planted out of the soil out of the ground. Baidu has a text, Alibaba has a righteous question, 360 has a big wise brain model.This opportunity to rewrite business history.According to Sina Technology statistics, as of July 31, various domestic companies have launched more than 100 large models.


But the narrative of the hard technology industry is far less light as TMT and consumption.The huge investment, long cycle, and unable to see a business return in the short term are the problems in front of all players.For example, as the key link of chip manufacturing, the chip factory will hand over the designed scheme to the manufacturer to produce samples. Because it involves complex craftsmanship, the flow film is very expensive.The process chip is 30 million US dollars, and the 5nm process chip has reached $ 47.25 million.Moreover, not all chips can be successful at one time.


The price of AI computing power is even more expensive. Train GPUs necessary for large models, A100, A800, H100, H800 produced by Nvidia, a price of 70,000 to 300,000 yuan.The factory purchases dozens of or hundreds of servers, and the amount of orders exceeds 100 million.


Sometimes the lively is just superficial. More people who are in it are the most clear perception.Not all enterprises can carry the pressure and invest will.For the judgment and consideration of technological difficulties, production costs, industry trends, and development strategies, some large manufacturers have abandoned cutting -edge exploration business.


In June of this year, because the founder Wang Huiwen was sick, he was acquired by Meituan, a big model company that was established less than half a year away.A month later, the unicorn science technology, which has received 1.36 billion yuan D round, has been exposed to the company's employee social security and provident fund.


In an interview with Sina Technology, Shen Meng, executive director of Xiang Song Capital, said: "This means that the bubbles of large domestic models have been produced ... Many small and medium investors know clearly.', But everyone is still continuing to penetrate the flowers and spread the bubble. "


In May of this year, Zheku, a chip company of OPPO, announced the dissolution. The company should be safely upgraded and the office area does not open the door as an excuse to allow employees to work at home.CEO Liu Jun choked to say goodbye to all colleagues.


A fresh graduate got offer with a monthly salary of 25K in a chip company. To this end, he moved from Beijing to Zhangjiang, Shanghai.But only three weeks to work, he went to the company's layoff list. "I did not expect that the first bucket of gold after work was a compensation for layoffs."


Shanghai Zhangjiang has the most densely chip industrial park and large company in China. The orange -yellow huge tower crane is surrounded by green dust walls.Shanghai chip watch Zhangjiang ".Every night, the talent apartment building of the lights is like a huge honeycomb to provide an economical and affordable place for young people in the chip industry.


This year, a group of young people dragged their suitcases and moved away.But everyone knows that some people will continue to move in, and then invest in the industry, and flow.




▲ Aviation Shanghai Zhangjiang Gao Technology Park.Photo / Visual China


Reference materials:

[1] Sina Technology: ChatGPT "One Anniversary" domestic appearance: awakening, catching up, commercial, palace fights, dissolution ...

[2] Tech Planet: What did Zhong Xue Gao go through the altar?

[3] Voice of China of Central Radio and Television Station: The chairman is lost, and many stores are closed!How does the well -known early education institution Micham end?

[4] Huashang Tao Lue: Those who are hurt by Evergrande

[5] China News Weekly: Liabilities 2.4 trillion, why not install Evergrande?

[6] Late LatePost: When a star consumer company fuel is exhausted

The article is original for daily characters, and infringement must be investigated


In the past year, the financial circle seems to have set off the "disappearance" of the fund manager, some of which are out of office, such as "Medical Goddess" Gelan; some are departure, such as "chip brother" Cai Songsong; others disappear from the public offerings, and turn around, turn around, turn around, and turn around.Private equity ... Wind data also shows that among the relevant companies in 197, more than 350 fund managers have left in this year, and the number is the most in the same period of the past five years.


Now, for those fund practitioners who are in the center of the storm, "no matter who leaves, it is not surprising."In the past, the fund manager was a glittering occupation, and the outside world spread their myth.But these groups of people closest to money chose to dormant or disappear.The trust and money of thousands of people disappeared together.


Today, everyone is looking forward to spring.





Text | Wang Xiao

Edit | Yifangxing

Operation | orange



Disappear


A sister of the fund company next door was pregnant and announced six months.


Hearing this news, Dai Ting, who is a public fund in Hong Kong (for all investors, is not limited to the purchase amount).She thought that the 40 -year -old sister would choose Dink, because the other party was "strong, the disk was very large", and the fertility "had a great impact on the cause" -the consensus in the circle.But in early 2023, the company's front foot just announced the year -end award, and her sister's back feet announced that she was pregnant.


Dai Ting heard that after the other party took the bonus, he took a half -year maternity leave. "It seems that it is not very Care's own disk, nor can you come back without care."


This sister's "disappearance" is not alone.Before Dai Ting, many people chose to "disappear" by adjusting the way.Once, the leader called Dai Ting to the office. "Recently, there are a few sets to be empty. Do you see that you are interested?" Dai Ting glanced at several disks pushed by the leader., But they all decided to draw from the post of fund managers and retreat to the middle and backstage responsible for data and contract processing.


The more common "disappearing" method is personnel optimization.


Dai Ting left 60%of his classmates in the financial circle.On one occasion, she ate with a friend who was a fund manager. My friend received a HR call. The friend asked, "When will you go to the resignation", the friend knows that his entire fund is gone.In the team, the fund manager and researchers, secretaries, and other more than forty people had to leave. HR complained about HR who called, "I also have to do my resignation by the way."




▲ Figure / Visual China


In the minds of the public, the news of the departure of the fund manager rushing into the field of vision may begin with the change of the industry's "top flow".In September 2023, Grandin, a "company arrangement" of China -Europe Medical, stepped down to two funds, which caused heated discussion among Kimin.


In fact, since the beginning of the year, there have been news that star fund managers have reported career changes. First, Feng Mingyuan, a Cinda Austrian Fund manager code -named "Technology Hunter", stepped down as six funds in succession, leaving only 4 in his hand.Subsequently, Cai Songsong, the manager of the Nuoan Fund, stepped down on September 29, stepped down the complete product, officially issued an announcement, and Cai Songsong left.


In 2023, there are more and more fund managers who have left.According to Wind data, as of December 27, 357 fund managers have left in 2023 among the 197 companies including securities company asset management and fund companies.Although the total number of fund managers, this is only a small part, but compared with previous years, the number of people has been the largest in the past five years.


According to Bakery Finance, compared with the end of November last year, the number of fund managers of 12 fund companies such as Xingyin Fund and Changsheng Fund in 2023 shrinks year -on -year, and the overall small and medium -sized fund companies are mainly.Rongtong Fund had five fund managers in the first half of the year.


Not only the public offering fund, but also the case of private equity funds (for a few investment customers, the investment amount is not less than 1 million) is not optimistic.Li Yuqi is a partner of private equity in Shanghai. In October 2023, he went to Shanghai to investigate and visit other fund institutions.A top institution has begun to optimize a large number, and a partner of a private equity company, "can't make money, plan to change jobs to state -owned enterprises."


There are as many as 2,344 private equity in 2023, of which some do not meet the industry regulations for mandatory cancellation, but it is more poorly operated and bankrupt.According to data from private equity ducts, as of December 27, 9755 stock strategies have renewed the update of private equity products, of which the products that have lost money in the past year accounted for 57.42%.The company was closed, "the fund manager must be gone."


In this industry that launch the whole body, the "disappearance" of the fund manager at the front desk will cause practitioners in the middle and backstage to be forced to "disappear."


Zhang Jun, who has been in the industry for nearly nine years, is a fund product manager.In March 2023, the leader suddenly called him to the office and announced that he was "optimized". Zhang Jun was instantly stunned, "never thought that he would be optimized."Judging from Zhang Jun's many years of observation: the financial industry is very face -oriented.Therefore, I rarely heard which institution is optimized directly, "generally adjusting the job to force employees to go."


Zhang Jun did not change to this foreign company at the end of last year. He had rich experience before and his salary was relatively high.When it was optimized, the leader said that he was "ability to be unable". Zhang Jun first thought it was really a problem, but after half a month, he asked with his colleagues to know that the leader did not recruit newcomers at all, and the department reduced it.


"This position is directly closed." Zhang Jun said.The work he was originally responsible was stated into a few petals to spread it on the head of other colleagues, "overtime every day."




▲ Figure / Visual China



When the wind rises


In the glittering era, countless fund managers who stepped on the mid -wind mouth jumped up and woven the glorious record of gold.


As early as 2014, when Dai Ting was still in high school, he was encouraged by the "legendary story" -a school sister of the school worked for two years and bought a suit in his hometown in Nanjing City.And they all come from the same professional -finance.


Since then, the equation of "learning finance = financial freedom" has been planted in Dai Ting's heart. After the college entrance examination, the admissions office of Peking University and Tsinghua have gone to her house to send olive branches. In the end, she went to Hong Kong to study undergraduateEssence


After entering college, she changed a way of rolling.Every week, Dai Ting forced himself to know 3 financial practitioners and ask them to ask them for professional experience. The most basic way is to know the seniors and sisters of the school. In addition, she will add friends and chat one by one on the lead.


Prior to 2021, the wealth -making story of the financial circle had never been interrupted in Dai Ting's ear. Today, a fund manager is academic operation. The year -end award will be divided into tens of millions.financial freedom.


It was an era when star fund managers took off.


It was also before 2021, whether it was the A -share syndrome index or the Hang Seng index of Hong Kong stocks. In terms of chart, it was fluctuating.


At that time, "to step into the industry's outlets and the blessing of social media," becoming a star fund manager is a very imaginative thing. "In 2020, the liquor sector rose rapidly, and Zhang Kun, the manager of the Yifangda Fund, became a star fund manager with a heavy warehouse liquor.Kimin called him "the God of War", and even some people even set up a global fan support meeting on Weibo and opened Weibo super talks.


In the past two years, it is also a period of taking off in the top -flow fund manager Grand.In 2020, Grandia's largest fund -China -Europe medical health mixed, with a scale of less than 6 billion, but by 2021, this fund has increased by 6 times, with a scale of more than 40 billion yuan.It rolled to 110.39 billion yuan like a snowball.Gelan's code in Kimin and the media has therefore become a "medical goddess".


Gelan prefers the CXO track.CXO refers to the outsourcing service of the research and development, production and sales of medicine.In the past few years, CXO has been the fastest growth industry in the pharmaceutical industry.Because of the country's encouragement of innovative drugs and the global pharmaceutical giant research and development link to China, there are many double bull stocks in the track.By 2020, the development of the new crown vaccine has greatly increased CXO demand, and this sector takes off directly.At that time, almost "one company was listed every 3.75 days" in the biomedical industry.




▲ Figure / Visual China


For some "non -professional players", there have been opportunities in those two years. Dagang Investment Partner Yao Zhongzhen has wanted to switch to a private equity fund manager since 2016. Before that, he has been working at a broker (securities company).Responsible for providing investment advice to customers.


Without industry resources, he can only operate Weibo accounts, accumulate fans, and "find some part -time support for home."He shares his stock speculation on Weibo every day. Occasionally, there will be a few large V for reposting, and the number of fans will start to rise. By 2020, every time he sends a Weibo "a hundred responses", almost all in the financial field of finance and economicsBig V reposted his point of view.


A partner threw an olive branch.At the end of 2020, Yao Zhongzhen finally released his first fund, and his Weibo fan volume also broke through 500,000.Many fans have found him investment one after another. By 2021, the scale of Yao Zhongzhe's hand tube reached 50 million.


At that time, one of his optimistic sectors was energy storage.The "3060" strategy is popular in the new energy circle, which is a national strategy. Carbon dioxide emissions strive to reach the peak before 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.To achieve it, the state has planned a huge layout of new energy development, and energy storage technology is a key step to solve the instability of new energy.


Yao Zhongzhen took a lot of energy storage stocks. From April to July 2021, it was only three months old, and it gave investors a dividend of 17 points (equivalent to 17%).


Zhang Jun also remembers that glorious era. His daily work is constantly publishing products to prepare for the bull market.The explosive fund also needs to "start tens of billions". In 2020, "several can even raise 100 billion yuan". One product is launched and "can be sold casually."


But it is difficult to become a fund manager because the industry is too fierce.Many of Zhang Jun's classmates, in order to be a fund manager, from researchers to assistant, to fund managers, they must not go wrong every step. It becomes a fund manager "more than 90%of people, and they have to be very rolled."


Yao Zhongzhen also wrote a book entitled "The Toughness of Investment -Let the Law Blooming Value", which specifically talked about his repeated rejection before starting a business.No one wants money. "


But at that time, excellent talents still crowded their heads and wanted to enter this industry with milk and honey.


Almost all fund managers have an extremely glorious resume.According to Wind data statistics, of the 3,460 fund managers with a management scale of nearly 27 trillion yuan, the number of people with a master's degree and above accounts for 96%.Chinese reporters from the securities firms sorted out from the public fund managers and found that there were more than 100 fund managers who had academic backgrounds with Peking University, Tsinghua University and Fudan University.


Under the blessing of high education, Kimin was superstitious about the star manager of the star fund.35 -year -old Zhao Ying followed Grand for more than a year, just to see her doctor of medical doctors. Gelan studied at Tsinghua University, and then went to the United States to study a doctorate in biomedical engineering."Medical majors must know more about medical care."


Zhang Jun recognized Zhang Feng, the star fund manager of the Wells Fund Fund.At that time, he was firm in his choice. No matter how he transferred his position, he would follow up. "They must be stronger than me."




▲ Figure / Visual China



The beginning of the cold wave


Originally thought of "the great exhibition", but the situation began to be wrong. In the warm wind, there seemed to be a hint of chills.


In the second half of 2021, with the efforts of Dai Ting, after graduating from undergraduate, it took just one year to be promoted into a fund manager.But after the promotion, the company's atmosphere became depressed. The colleagues responsible for the mainland of the mainland seemed to be covered with a layer of sadness, "always sighing."


Every day, Dai Ting's first thing is to look at the trend of the stock market, but whether it is A shares or Hong Kong stocks, it seems to be "unable to stop the car, all the way down".A shares can be slightly slower downhill. Many foreign investment in Hong Kong stocks had previously invested in. After foreign investment, it fell from nearly 30,000 points in March 2021 to 17,000 points in October 2022.


At that time, Dai Ting's play was "guerrilla warfare", and the first purpose was to avoid uncertain cities.Every day she pays close attention to the number of diagnostic people in each city, and then speculates whether the city will change, and then study which large factories in the city will affect which industries will affect. If the signs are wrong, they will quickly reduce their holdings.


Every day, Dai Ting read the news, quickly reported to the boss, and then "analyzed a wave, voted a wave, withdrew a wave, and finally sighed a wave."Later, the "guerrilla warfare" play was not easy to use, and could only be unblocked.


At that time, the founders could not be spared.Zhao Ying found that starting from the second half of 2021, China -Europe Medical has begun to lose money. "It seems to have been falling", and all the money made by buying China -Europe Medical has all fell.Affected by the internal and external environment of pharmaceutical collection, the pharmaceutical sector fell significantly.According to Wind data, the top ten heavy warehouse stocks in China and Europe have fallen sharply in the second half of 2021, of which the top five stocks have fallen by more than 30%.


During that time, many founders purchased the Grand Management Fund through the recommendation of the "Alipay Gold Selection" of the sales platform. When the fund held a big loss, not only did the foundation dissatisfied with Gelan, but also began to complain about Alipay.Later, Grand's fund disappeared directly in the Alipay Fund's "weekly sales list".


Zhao Ying also started to retreat, "I won't follow Grand in the future."As of February 2022, China -Europe Medical Health A's retracement has exceeded 40%relative to the previous high.In her heart, Gelan stepped down the altar step by step from her "unknown operation".For example, at the end of 2020, Gelan released a fund called "Central Erfa". This fund is different from the old pharmaceutical bank she has paid attention to in the past., But at that time, "liquor has been fried very hot".


Judging from the trend chart of these stocks, it is not optimistic.Since the end of 2020, liquor has fallen all the way, and Gelan has "bought the highest place."




▲ Figure / Visual China


"Unlimited purchase" is also one of the operations that Zhao Ying can't understand.When the scale of the fund is growing too fast and too large, in order to protect the interests of the fund holder, many fund managers will choose to restrict purchase.On January 28, the selected mixed purchase limit managed by Zhang Kun's Blue chip was reduced from the original 100,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan.But Gelan "has no purchase restriction."


In this industry, the salary of public fund managers is not linked to performance. Instead, it is linked to the scale of management. Fund companies charge 1.5%of the management fee of CIMC. "The larger the plate, the more management costs."As a star fund manager, because "they can bring money by themselves", there will be more division.


This is also a place where many founders feel unhappy -the fund is losing, but the fund manager can still make management fees.


Even the media person Hu Xijin recently talked about it, the fund he bought "fell badly."At the Sina Finance 2023 meeting and the 16th Golden Kirin Forum held on December 21, he said: "((My Three Fund's) manager's income should be descended with me ..., Difficulty in common. "


However, in addition to the star fund manager, ordinary fund managers are much less.For example, Dai Ting, she described her status as a "big pot rice". Kimin's money depends on the reputation of their company. The big head of the management fee is taken away by the company.


For ordinary fund managers, bonuses are important outside of salary, but it is also linked to performance.If the company earns less money and the bonus can be divided at the end of the year, everyone is looking forward to the bull market.Last year, many public fund managers went to private funds (switched to private equity funds) to seek higher benefits.


Li Yuqi remembered that in 2022, a public fund manager with good resources transferred to private placement. Although the market was not good at that time, for many public fund managers, it was "a turnaround."Because private equity managers can charge 20%of performance promises, as long as the bull market is ushered in, it will make more.


But the expectation of the bull market did not appear.Li Yuqi remembered that many people came here and invested a lot of money. The fund manager did not wait for the bull market and did not run over the large market. After losing, "everyone doesn't find him much."


In a sense, the fund manager also "passively disappeared".




▲ Figure / Visual China



Hope Spring


Everyone has worked hard.


Dai Ting remembers that at the end of 2022, the company's atmosphere was excited again. Everyone was waiting for the rapid recovery of the economy after waiting for the policy to let go. The colleagues "face the face."Kimin is also very confident and threw money on her plate. The total size she managed was more than 3 billion, and nearly 10 points of money poured in every day. At that time, Dai Ting was crazy every day.purchase".


I feel that I want to rise sharply when I see anything: I have n’t traveled for so long, it ’s time to travel,“ heavy warehouse airline ”, the hotel also brought a wave;; "If you are not married, you should get married, buy a house." Let's have a wave of real estate.


At that time, the market was hot and expensive.Even though some stock prices have been pushed high, some have risen to 10%, but Dai Ting dare not follow, "in case it has risen to 20%again."At that time, their analysis was: Even if the market calmed down for a while, the price would decline, but "the gradually recovered economic activities will support it."


As a result, just two months after rising, the trend of Hong Kong stocks began in February. Since then, Dai Ting has not remembered how many times it has fallen. I just remember to sigh once from the heart.Can also fall. "


I remember in July 2023, she had a meeting while staring at the industry situation just out of the industry. A series of numbers jumped out, and Dai Ting's heart was stunned.


The main in the mainland group next door, colleagues' response should be more intense, and repeatedly lament "what to do like this."


After that, Dai Ting watched, and the fund manager's "disappearing tide" came.Later, it was no longer a new thing to disappear.


But for many fund managers, whether it is "active disappearance" or "passive disappearance" is not long -term scores, many people still have to start looking for jobs.


Disappearing is easy to come back and difficult.Dai Ting's optimized friends thought that they would definitely find a job within three months, but found more than half a year before they found new opportunities.Zhang Jun, the optimized fund product manager, has not been found yet. In 2022, he invested in eight institutions at that time, and there were four replies. As a result, almost all institutions were voted by 2023.It's all stones.He ran to inquire with headhunters: either he had no plan to recruit or want to find a younger, "don't have to pay so much salary."


With the "disappearance" of the fund manager, people's money and confidence disappeared together.


Today, Zhang Jun has begun to give up, and he feels that "it is better to invest in your own investment."In the past, he was superstitious about the Star Fund Manager, and he had lost more than 200,000. Now he feels that "no matter how strong the fund manager is, he can't play the general trend."Starting last week, he learned to invest in financial management at home 996 every day, "research well", and did it himself.


Ji Min Zhao Ying also decided to abandon the follow -up fund manager.Today, her fund has only left 60,000 to 70,000, "rarely opens to watch", and began to switch to the field to operate ETF (exchange trading fund).


There are more people who sighed on social platforms -some people do not open the software to see, "It's losing anyway, it's useless to see", occasionally open it, "lost 35% of 35% of the loss once, and" lost 35% of 35%."; Some people have worked for many years, and they are reluctant to buy 80,000 yuan in bags, but" the fund has lost 80,000 "; there are still people who bought Gram's China -Europe medical treatment at the high point in 2021.I feel that I can return to the book. When I lose to 20%, "the pain cannot be sold", and now, it has been directly lost to nearly 60%.


But this "disappearance" is not all negative.There are also many fund managers who choose to adhere to and find some opportunities.


In this market, the fund manager Li Yuqi has always been making money. He mainly does quantitative private placement, and uses a computer to help him screen for suitable stocks.At the end of 2021, he added the Fund's product to the CTA (Commodity Trading Consultant) strategy. This strategy was profitable through volatility. That is to say, whether A -shares rose or fall, as long as the fluctuations were violent, they could be profitable.


To this end, Li Yuqi gave concessions to the entire stock strategy sector. The energy of the entire company's investment and research department is rarely used in stock selection, and almost all put in the analysis of the CTA strategy.


At the end of last year, he opened a homestay in the Cultural and Creative Park of the Erling Second Factory in Chongqing, but after taking over, he found that there was no passenger flow. For a while, the property encouraged them to go out to set up a stall.No one can buy a bowl of dollars. "Today, the homestay has lost more than one million.This homestay became the vane of Li Yuqi's judgment of the economic trend. "When did the homestay make money and when the economy is fine."


Yao Zhongzhen, a private equity fund manager, has always insisted on choosing stocks. He still made a little money in 2023, but it really made quite difficult.He followed a stable style. Before choosing a stock, he would pick the blue ocean industry again, and then focused on analyzing the leading stocks and growth stocks in the industry, carefully compared the valuations over the years, and carefully selected a "lowInvestment portfolio of valuation ".Before you really buy, you have to ask yourself: If the stock market will be closed for three years after buying, I dare not choose.Only after getting a positive answer will you buy it firmly, so he has almost no stock.


In order not to lose too much, he also asked himself to buy a small part of the operation, leaving a small amount of money every time, and he would make up the position at any time when he fell.Under the blessing of this protection mechanism, in 2023, he won the market for nearly 70%.


In this year, as a private equity fund manager, he feels more stress because investors are anxious.For some time, investors sent a long composition analysis of the current industry situation and questioned his operation.For example, in 2023, an investor happened to be cast in after the dividend, and there has been no dividend after casting in. In the past three months, the other party sent a small number of small compositions twice.It becomes the ultimatum, "it is a year, and you will retreat if you do not divide it."


In the same industry, the public fund is similar to the situation.Dai Ting's friends called a while ago to complain: The new company may also be optimized. After joining the job, they have been retracted every day, and two funds have been closed.Originally, the trend rose, more funds poured in, more opportunities and choices of investment, and the larger the scale, the larger the influx of funds to form a flywheel.Now that this flywheel seems to be reversed, the trend has fallen, and everyone has deepened. Once the rise, a large number of people immediately redeem it, "I dare not put the money in the fund."


When Dai Ting first received a colleague's disk, he looked at the "bad disk" at first glance. In fact, he was unwilling. Some of them were real estate high -interest bonds.For fund managers, the performance of the fund managed will be written into her professional resume, but the performance of these bad disks is difficult to look good.


However, Dai Ting did not dare to refuse. Regardless of the bad disk, the scale on his hand was large, "the company will not optimize itself easily."


What makes people laugh is that last month, Dai Ting went to do nail art. The manicurist scolded their funds for half an hour, and then turned around and asked Dai Ting's job. She dare not say that she was a fund manager and hesitated.After a while, the answer said:


"Sit in the office."




▲ Figure / Visual China

(Except for Li Yuqi and Yao Zhongzhen, the interviewees are pseudonym)


The article is original for daily characters, and infringement must be investigated



"It's not that XX can't afford it, but XX is more cost -effective." - Opening the history of commercial consumption in the past year, this sentence can almost run through.Once young consumers pursue cost -effective vision, once the gorgeous shells that some brands have been packaged by quality life and consumption have been broken in the past, it is easy to break in one blow.


The "king of cost -effectiveness", relying on the superb supply chain management art and profound human insights, played a good hand in the consumption period.





Text | Chang Fangfei

Edit | Sorrowful

Operation | Circle


Coffee 9 9, from a sharp blade to a war


This year's cost -effective war started with a cup of coffee of 9 yuan.Opening the annual ledger, it has become most young consumers, and the expenditure that cannot be skipped -if you are tired and sleepy, you have to fight.From the beginning, it is more cost -effective for 9 and 9.


Nine 9th, originally a sharp blade of Kurodi counterattack Ruixing.This coffee brand has the banner of "Hundred Cities and Thousand Store Carnival", and more than 70 coffee is sold from 9.9 yuan.Rui Xing also quickly loaded ammunition. It relied on its own operating ability to issue 9.9 yuan coupons to consumers with Ruixing Store, which is nearby with Kudy stores nearby.


Kudy did not counsel, and further pulled the price to 8 yuan.Consumers like to watch this straight business war, shouting not to stop, even thanks to Kurody, "Because of it, I drank 9 yuan and 9 Rui Xing."


Soon, nine and 9 evolved into a war, running through the past year, and so far there is no sign of the suspension.On June 5 last year, Ruixing Coffee officially opened at Zhongshan Road, Xiamen, and launched a discount event of 9.9 yuan per week at all stores.At the subsequent second quarter performance communication meeting, CEO Guo Jin was shot, and the 9.9 yuan promotional activity lasted for at least two years, "because each cup was made of money."


The cost -effective is a sexy label, but it does not mean that all enterprises can build the corresponding ability.Many coffee brands are trying to find golden segmentation points in the "impossible triangle" that are high -quality, high -quality, and full products, but only Ruixing is the first to give high score answers.


After raising coconut iron has become a explosion, Ruixing re -calibrated the product research and development logic -making products that conform to most Chinese flavor, that is, try to reduce the bitterness of coffee, enhance milk and sweetness, and step on milk tea users to grandma to grandma.The trend of the transformation of coffee users and the formulation of the "big ladra" strategy, which is also considered one of the reasons for success.


The strategic direction of cost -effectiveness must be found, and a strong supply chain management capabilities must be found to ensure that the explosive models can be stable.Every time you go to the new, there is a big test. The preparation time is at least two to three months. The core task is to ensure the stable supply of raw materials and packaging materials.In September last year, Ruixing and Kudy again stood on the ring again.The former co -branded Moutai's sauce latte, which will take 100 million yuan in sales on the day of listing, and then Kudy co -branded Wuchang rice to launch rice milk latte. The slogan directly points to the opponent.Nay your stomach with porridge. "However, Kudy's counterattack was quickly stunned, and the new product heat had not faded. Some stores had no stock to sell due to the shortage of raw materials.


The eye -catching and cost -effective counter will follow up quickly and learn Ruixing to take the site selection and subsidies, but they find that they "have a great gap between whether they wake up from the repurchase or the ability to issue coupons."Some points, only Rui Xing can take it down and live.Employees are also accurately managed in the great efficiency.The most exaggerated time, a drink was originally required to have 3 pump syrup, but the employee had just cleaned the machine. The first pump was an empty pump. So he pressed 4 pumps and was monitored to capture it.


In the above, it was finally promoted to Ruixing against Super Starbucks China. It not only exceeded the latter in a single quarter, but also became the first coffee brand in the Chinese market to break through the 10,000 stores, and became the "cost -effective king" in the coffee field.




▲ Figure / Visual China


Earlier, the only successful story template on this track was Starbucks, who had worked for more than 20 years, and was less connected with cost -effectiveness.The small white cup printed with the green sea demon logo is more of the young people's imagination of urban white -collar workers, and even become a symbol of a certain class.Anne Hathaway in "The Queen of Prada" is holding it on the streets of New York. Gu Li, the heroine of "Little Times", can't take a few more steps for "no material love", but willing to be on the streets of Shanghai in the early morningWaiting for Starbucks to open the door.


At that time, Starbucks had its own rhythm.Although the coffee market itself has maintained a high speed, Starbucks is still bound to niche and elite, and the expansion speed is maintained at about 500 each year.


Facing the menacing opponents, Starbucks had to be passively involved in the war and began to run.In the last fiscal season, Starbucks opened 326 new stores, with an average of 4 new stores a day. This is the fastest daily opening speed of Starbucks since entering China.


Whether the founder Schultz, the chairman of Starbucks, and the CEO Wang Jingying, Wang Jingying wrote Wandian into his goal.Faced with the fierce price war set off by local coffee, although Starbucks did not directly reduce the price, whether it was a 75 % discount on the Double Cup in the APP, or the "Buy One Gift One" subsidy for the Meituan and the public.Both were controlled below 30 yuan.


The cost -effective war of 9 and 9 is difficult to see at the end in a short time.When coffee sinks further to the county, towns and towns, the competitive environment is more complicated, and the opponent is more fierce.


On the first working day of 2024, Mixue Ice City, which has over 36,000 stores, submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, of which nearly 3,000 stores belonged to the present -grinding coffee brand "Lucky Coffee".The strong supply chain of "Snow King" allows it to control the core product price of Honey Snow Ice City at 2 to 8 yuan, and the price of the core products of "Lucky Coffee" is also at a ultra -low price belt of 5 to 10 yuan.It is another "king of cost performance".




▲ Figure / Visual China


The cost -effective strategy is not without negative effects.Continuous price subsidies have lowered Ruixing's speed of making money.In the last fiscal season, the price of Ruixing's single cup dropped from 15 yuan to 13.5 yuan, and the profit margin also fell to 13.7%synchronously.Despite claiming to be "ammunition", the coupons of 9 9 9 were issued from daily to it to be issued once a week.


Not all coffee players want to invest in this fierce battle.Li Dong, the chief financial officer of Tims Tianhao China, made it clear in an interview that his brand will not participate."If the pricing of coffee is around 10 yuan, consumers will not think that this is a professional or high -quality coffee. The reasonable price of Ruixing and Kudy's products should be 14 yuan to 15 yuan."


But consumers have their own way of voting, and the pursuit of price -performance performance has been set.With the frequency of issuance of coupons to the weekly, the frequency of many people drinking Ruixing also slows down.There are even people who directly buy Ruixing 25 ml of concentrated coffee liquid from leisure fish and Pinduoduo.



Lunch swells, "poor ghost package" is really fragrant


In addition to coffee, eating is a more necessary expenditure for workers.In the past year, many people have discovered a monthly salary of 20,000, and things that "can't afford" are becoming more and more -stepped back from imported cherry back to a lunch.


The Chinese fast food, which has been available, has gradually expanded and even becomes unattainable.According to the standard of one and one vegetarian soup, the real kung fu winter mushroom chicken leg package rises to 42 yuan.The meat, tomato eggs with rice and chicken soup cost 46 yuan.


Young people are inevitable that they have been abandoned. "I am also from Anhui, but I feel that the price of‘ fellow chicken ’is not like my fellow.”40 yuan is generally the bottom line of lunch for white -collar workers in first -tier cities.Based on the two meals a day, they only spend nearly 1,800 yuan per month in the case of dinner.


Consumers' decision to save money from their teeth, like a rotary dart, hit the financial report of the entire catering industry.In the past year, the unit price of chain catering has fallen quite obvious.The unit price of Tai Dierso is 75 yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 3.9%; the Big Big Buxu fell to 58.4 yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 7.4%.


Finding more cost -effective lunch options has become an urgent matter.This gives a large number of county catering brands a chance to counterattack in first -tier cities.Until the star Wei Daxun sat into the Mi Village bibimbap, many talents realized that in the past year, the fast -food brand called "Northeast McDonald's" was expanding at a very fast speed.In just a month ago, the first store of Mukura Bibimbap opened the door to welcome guests. At the same time, it was also the 1,000th store in the country.After Micun Bibimbap became a native chicken, another Chinese -style fast -food brand reached thousands of shops.


Low price is its winning weapon.In the Beijing store, the signature stone pot bibimbap and grilled beef bibimbap are 26 yuan.The bloggers constantly update more money to eat: children's meals, pay attention to add vegetables, and can be full at half of the price of ordinary packages.3 yuan unlimited rice, free kelp soup and kimchi can also make up for a "poor ghost package".Eggs and beef have aroma on the hot iron plate, and the price of more than 20 yuan has become the choice of young people "never step on the thunder".


The same relying on low prices, there are Tastin.There, a single set meal containing burgers only cost 20 yuan.If you caught up on Tuesday Member Day, you can buy two spicy chicken legs for 13 yuan.


But low prices are not the necessary conditions for them to become the "king of cost -effectiveness" in the catering industry.For the first time, a 50 -year -old father walked into Tastin with his daughter, and saw the chef who was skilled in rolling burgers and kept running an oven."All foods are made now, and they are so cheap." He was very satisfied.Low -priced, large quantity, and grilled are the most attractive features of Tastin. They feel that this is a very high cost performance.




▲ Tastin's Chinese -style burger single set meal.Photo / Visual China


The full understanding of cost -effectiveness has helped Tastin surpass the opponent in the three years when the catering industry has been impacted and expanded.In 2020, Tastin has just transformed and sold Chinese burgers, with only 500 stores in the country. As of the end of last year, the number of Tastein stores has doubled by more than 6127, which is difficult to distinguish from McDonald's.


What is sighing is that the "poor ghost package" was also the belief of the "McDonal believers", and McDonald's in the past year has been "backbone" in their eyes -in January 2023, McDonald's first will first "1+ 1+1 The casual package "rose from 12.9 yuan to 13.9 yuan, and in the last few days of 2023," McDonald's price increase "rushed to the hot search again.In addition, many consumers have also found that the head of the giant is shrinking, and the soul crisps of the spicy chicken wings have also signs of gradually disappearing. It is just winter. Some people say that this is a bad news than the weather.


After losing Mai Mai, young people will find that more chain restaurants "have hit the price" and are cost -effective.Nanchengxiang, who is in Beijing, launched a 3 yuan buffet breakfast this year. After entering the winter, it will soon launch 19.9 yuan vegetables to eat small hot pot. Meat enthusiasts plus 10 yuan, you can buy mutton single hot pot package, advertising, advertisingPropaganda also emphasized that meat is raw meat.


The core of supporting this comprehensive price war is the central kitchen.Every evening, the central kitchen will send a car goods to various stores.Wang Guoyu, the founder of Nanchengxiang, also intends to build another central kitchen of more than 10,000 square meters, because "without it, the price cannot be reduced."


This is also the core idea of Mi Village bibimbap. Previously, in addition to the local procurement of Mukura bibimbap, the rest of the meals were distributed by the central kitchen. Now, the central kitchen is swallowing more ingredients, as large as squid and beef.As small as mushrooms and bibimbap sauce, they are all semi -finished products.Tastin also reduced the burden on the store as much as possible. From frozen dough to chicken and beef, there were uniform distribution.


It is different from many restaurants that stir -fry and do it. Micun Bibimbap does not hide "even the onion is prefabricated".The young people who walked into the store also became a lot tolerant. The pot gas brought about by high temperatures allowed them to temporarily forget the "poor ghost set meal", and they were still all kinds of prefabricated dishes they wanted to escape.



The mall sinks, and the discount store is hot


In addition to eating and drinking, young people who visit the mall also began to optimize their actions and pursue more cost -effective shopping.In the various aroma heat waves mixed with hot pot, barbecue, and milk tea, they were surprised to find what they wanted to consume, almost all concentrated in B1 and B2.


In addition to catering, more categories are crowded to lower floors, sinking to find young people.Today's B1 and B2, three steps and one bubble Mart, five steps and one exquisite jewelry shop.Fast fashion brand Charles & Keith, Chuu has settled in.More young people directly skipped floors selling big -name clothing and shoe and bags, and went straight to the ground.Even everyone's schedule is very similar: I wander Hema but take nothing, eat a hot pot with friends, buy a cup of milk tea at most, or a 10 yuan scraper -I earn the first 5 millionIt really doesn't work, and 500 yuan can also be done.


People are gradually no longer consumed for "non -necessary" consumption, and data confirms this.The "2023 Chinese Consumer Insight and 2024 Outlook" released by Nielson China shows that young consumers who are not sensitive to prices have significantly reduced, from 30%in January last year to 15%.And their merchants who stay and consumer also began to learn to adapt to a new era of consumption.


Under the atmosphere of the pursuit of cost -effectiveness, the darlings that were born in the age of consumption upgrades, and then setting up quality life, it seems unsatisfactory.The box horse took out a low -cost weapon and aimed at the prosperous explosive product of the Sam member shop -a box of 1 kg of durian cakes.In Sam, its price is 128 yuan. In August last year, Hema lowered the price of the same product in the store to 99 yuan.Sam followed up and always maintained a cheaper of 0.1 yuan to 1 yuan cheaper than Hema, until Hema hit the price to 79 yuan.After some tearing, the effect was immediate. In just two months after the "Mount Mountain War", the Hema APP increased by 13.3%.


After having the confidence of the "expensive" label, Hema immediately immediately launched the largest strategy adjustment since its establishment: all offline stores have been discounted.This means that it completely abandons the model of purchasing from the supplier (KA) in the past, but instead benchmark Costco and Sam, creating its own vertical supply chain, reducing the cost of product costs by reducing middlemen and reducing the cost -effective turn.


In the "impossible triangle" of low -cost, high quality, and full product supply, Hema chooses to reduce consumer choices.This change will reduce about 3,000 SKUs and control the overall SKU to about 5,000.Hema almost hugged the strong man's determination to break his wrist and win the "life and death war."




▲ Hema's promotional words "low price every day, piece explosion".Figure / Daily Character


Haidilao, which once "you can't learn", also entered the market with lower positioning. The trials of noodles and rice rice did not stir up greater water.Open two stores.


This time, the service is invisible, and everything given the price -effective position.In Hi Lao, there are no free and unlimited fruits, snacks, no fancy work of nails and shampooing, and no staff will respond to the needs of "jump one section three" anytime, anywhere.Instead, the cost -effectiveness is visible to the naked eye -the bottom of the pot is not more than 30 yuan, the seasoning fee is 4 yuan, the price of vegetables does not exceed 10 yuan, and the per capita price is controlled between 65 and 70 yuan.


Behind the launch of the sub -brand is Haidilao's lingering anxiety.Standardized dishes and far exceeding the expected service are part of Haidilao's growth myth, but now they can no longer continue to convert into bright numbers on the financial report.Although the net profit in the first half of last year was close to the level of 2019, the unit price of the customer was still gradually decreasing, only 102.9 yuan, and in 2022, this number was still 105 yuan.The two red lines of the customer unit price and the turnover rate, the catering brand needs to keep it firmly.And investing in cost -effective war may be one of the few countermeasures in Haidilao.


Those brands driving at the high -level shopping malls have been on the hedge of the consumption upgrade wave in the past ten years, and now they have to learn to lean down.Li Xuelin, the founder of Hefu noodles, has reduced the prices of the main products in the past year. The 50s and 60 packages can't be sold, and half of the products will be reduced to less than 30 yuan.


The noodles rolled in the soup pot once rolled hot money.In just two years ago, Hetu noodles, Chen Xianggui ramen, and Ma Ji Yonglan beef noodles who bet on consumption upgrades have received capital pursuit.But now, exquisite is the first to abandon consumers, and young people have no mercy for "ramen assassins".


The same price reduction is the "snack king" shop.Just last month, the company launched the largest price reduction since its establishment in 17 years, with an average price reduction of more than 300 products.Once the explosion of Hawaii, pork preserved, and bread overnight the main price reduction."It is not a problem that is difficult to live, but a problem that can not live." Yang Yinfen, the new helm of Liangpinpu, said that it is expected that the price reduction can bring a new life to the brand.


What squeezes their survival space is the crazy discount store that expands, which is a more cost -effective choice in the eyes of young people.Just two months ago, Zhao Yiming snacks and snacks of domestic market snack brands were very busy.In the past two years, relying on low prices, their stores have expanded from 0 to thousands of.It is not difficult to maintain low prices for them. In addition to the current food, the price is lowered through scale.


When another offline chain discount store is good for purchasing products, it will compare the entire network price with Pinduoduo to ensure that the price of the purchase at that moment is the lowest.Industry people regard snack discount stores as offline versions of "Pinduoduo". Under the shroud of traditional platforms, the price has been hit, and consumers are retained at the same time.



Giant fierce fighting, cheap is justice


In the era of cost -effectiveness, it is even more noticeable that the giant platform that dominates most of our consumer behaviors.Among them, Pinduoduo was almost nice to pry the cake that originally belonged to Ali and JD by absolute low price.


In the early days of entrepreneurship, the founder Huang Yan was not so full of confidence. Ziqian said that "the team and Ali have been different for 20 years", but under the form of new traffic distribution, new user interaction forms, and new internationalization, there may beOpportunities to make different Ali.


Five years ago, "the people in the Five Ring Road couldn't understand it" is the most deepest moat in Huang Yan's eyes; now, Pinduoduo has become the fastest -growing Internet giant in China.People in the Five Ring Road gradually became more users, forcing Ali and Jingdong to rush into the same battlefield without returning.


The historic moment happened more than a month ago.On the evening of November 29, 2023, Pinduoduo released the third quarter of the year's financial report, with a total revenue of 68.84 billion yuan, an increase of 94%year -on -year; net profit was 15.54 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 47%.Continuously exceeding the expected growth, it has helped surpass Alibaba in the market value market, becoming the highest market value of US stocks.Since then, Pinduoduo completed the second transcendence of Ali. The last time he traced back to 2021. The DAU, who was DAU for the first time, surpassed the hand Amoy APP.


The absolute low price and cheap are the original impression of Pinduoduo to the outside world, but it is not the core of its win.Huang Yan mentioned in an interview that low prices are only the way to obtain users in stages. Pinduoduo has a deeper and more cost -effective understanding -that is, always in the expectation of consumersThe core is not 'cheap', but to satisfy users' feelings in their hearts. "


For example, he said that the first product of Pinduoduo was a bag of music potato chips, selling 10,000 copies a day."As long as half of potato chips can still be eaten, he (consumers) will feel worth it. But in turn, although there is only one yuan, if the potato chips are all broken in the past, consumers will feel that they have not taken advantage of cheap, and even scold you to scold you","


After realizing that Pinduoduo became an opponent who couldn't get around, Ali and JD.com decided to face the front and picked up cost -effective weapons.In the 618 of Taobao and JD.com in the past year and Double 11 promotions, all resource display is only related to low prices.In simple terms, as long as the merchant's goods can achieve the lowest price on the entire network, "the platform will give better resources and push more traffic."


Sometimes active induction is invalid.After many years of consumption upgrades, the quagmire was re -pulled into the quagmire of the price war, and the giants were not fully prepared.For a time, the platform needs to temporarily adjust 100 employees as an artificial crawler statistics to ensure the absolute advantage of their own price.In order to complete the low -cost KPI, e -commerce operations will even reduce the coupon of the merchant background.




▲ Figure / Visual China


The e -commerce platform this time showed the highest will of the highest level.Two founders of Ma Yun and Liu Qiangdong positively stated on the inner network -believe that they can change and must change.The latest change is to learn Pinduoduo, which has successively added regulations that support users to "refund and not return", making the entire shopping process more cost -effective.


But the pursuit of excessive low prices is not the original intention of the merchant.In this year's Double 11, the dispute between home appliance brands Hai and JD.com pushed the conflict between merchants and platforms to the stage due to the controversy of subsidies.Jingdong chose to support his live broadcast room. "Without emotions, it will only discount" to make it go to the hot search.Some people spend 1 yuan to buy 12 pounds of clothing sterilization solution, and some people squatted to a limited edition iPhone 15 of 2999 yuan.


In fact, the lowest price to induce merchants with higher flow is the consistent play since the establishment of Pinduoduo.


In 2019, Pinduoduo officially opened tens of billions of subsidies.According to the late LatePost report, 16 of the 20 products that are randomly selected are lower than Taobao and JD.The subsidy is real gold and silver, but it has also opened the process of the same brand game of Pinduoduo.


Pinduoduo will hardly consider the feelings of a single brand, but to find the cheapest product for users through the brutal screening of horse racing.The algorithm helped it execute this.If Ali and Jingdong are searching for e -commerce, Douyin is an interest e -commerce, then the core of Pinduoduo victory is recommended.Some brands said in an interview that nearly 80%of their product transactions come from recommendation, not user search.And Pinduoduo's display logic is also a single item rather than a shop, so there are few repurchase.


After the traffic strikes, the merchants are happy and worried.


After being held out of the water, more consumers can be seen by more consumers. What is worried is that after the product is invested in a product pool with 10 billion subsidies, it is necessary to accept the most stringent review of the platform.The founder of BUFF X used a caffeine chew tablet as an example. Once this product enters the subsidy system of Pinduoduo, it naturally face two tests: first, whether the product is the lowest in Pinduoduo; followed by Pinduoduo, in PinduoduoIn the entire caffeine chewing tablet of the platform, is it still the lowest price.For merchants, "this is terrible."


Obviously, between users, merchants, and platforms, the Pinduoduo of hand -holding traffic has gradually mastered absolute power.This accurate and rational traffic machine, strictly strictly focusing on the logic of the survival of the fittest, accelerate the shuffle process and continuously find a strong one.In April 2023, a large number of small and medium -sized merchants placed orders to brand flagship stores and KA merchants in batches. After delivery, they selected "only refund".They used a "bombing shop" to vent their dissatisfaction.


The "bomb shop" of Pinduoduo is defined as a "cyber violence and evil forces", and the platform will never yield.This extent also represents the attitude of the platform.Since then, Pinduoduo's only refund policy has not been loosened, and the fines of fines are still opaque.In the expansion of cross -border business TEMU, this attitude towards merchants is still continuing.


Huang Yan once stated that compared with the merchant, Pinduoduo put users first.What is more important than attitude is that the "harsh" clause helps Pinduoduo and finds the strongest supply chain that survived in infinite competition.Most of the time, only the refund function appears in an order below 20 yuan. When the keyword system monitors a dispute between users and merchants, the platform skips the merchant and refunds directly for the user.


Although small merchants complained, big brands tend to think that this is normal business behavior, because they have stronger tolerance for the quality and loss of goods.The unbearable merchants are naturally eliminated and swallowed in the jungle.


As Huang Yan said -the form of success today may not be the form of other people's success tomorrow, but human demand still exists, and it will further magnify, so the potential market is very large.Pinduoduo once killed the competition, but when it became a giant, the new challengers would inevitably appear.The only certainty is that cost -effective competition will not calm down quickly.




▲ Figure / Visual China


Reference materials:

1. The "Rui Xing Consensus" of Coffee, narrowed

2.Tims China Chief Financial Officer Li Dong: 9.9 yuan Coffee is a pseudo -proposition.

3. The monthly salary of 20,000, can't afford Chinese fast food, NetEase number reading

4. Chinese Burger Tastin completed 7 billion yuan of valuation financing. The investors are Sequoia Capital and Source Capital, 36 氪

5. Low -priced, extreme low prices and Pinduoduo, late

6. Repeat a lot, why can it continue to be low -cost and profitable, narrow

The article is original for daily characters, and infringement must be investigated



Today's tea industry is like a beach battle.


Nai Xue's tea ran away and became "the first share of tea", and the tea was caught up.Nowadays, Mixue Bingcheng and Gu Yan meet in a narrow road. They all choose to submit the main board listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 2, 2024, on the first day of construction.


The tea brand sprints towards the coastline. There are two types of kinetic energy. One is to draw paddle, do direct business, and do brands, such as the former Xixi and Naixue; the other is to recruit crews, open joiningBoth Xuebingcheng and Guya belong to the latter.


According to the prospectus, the main income of Mi Xue Bingcheng and Gu Yan comes from selling goods and equipment to franchisees, providing services, and simply understanding. Both of them do to B B business, and franchisees are their real customers.EssenceThis is of course a very good business. According to the prospectus, the revenue of Honey Snow Ice City revenue of 15.393 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023 and 29.7%of the gross profit margin; the revenue in the first three quarters of 2023Essence


What is the difference between the money of joining the franchisee? What is the difference between Mi Xue Bingcheng and Gu Yan?





Text | Xu Qing Xie Ziyi

Edit | Golden turning

Operation | Circle


starting point


Lu Liang, the founder of Tea Yanyue, said that people who can come to the milk tea industry are not very good in the first half of their lives. "None of them are good in grades, and those who have good grades will not come here to eat."


This law should also be verified when Miyuki Bingcheng is the post -70s, the founder Zhang Hongchao, graduated from junior high school, has done motorcycles repair, food salesperson, planted Chinese medicine, and raised rabbits. LaterIn order to make up for the family, it was sold to sell ice and cold drinks.


The small booth appeared on the streets of Zhengzhou in the 1990s. First, it was transformed into a cold drink shop. Later, the restaurant was transformed, and Chinese food and cold drinks were sold. In the end, it became a chain of tea brand Mixue Bingcheng.Essence


However, Wang Yunan, the founder of Gu Yan, was the opposite of the coin and another narrative of the times. His degree was high. In 2006, he was admitted to Zhejiang University of Technology. His parents were from Wenling and did small department stores in Yunnan.When he went to college, the atmosphere of entrepreneurship in Hangzhou University was strong. He and several friends who played football started a business on campus. He earned the first bucket of gold by selling radio and other products. Later, he also started his business.




▲ Wang Yunan, the founder and CEO of Guyao.Figure / official website


Intergenerational differences and early experiences have different experiences, so that the founders show different qualities: those who have worked too many times must have the blood full of blood to be defeated. According to late LatePost reports, in the early years, they started their business.Zhang Hongchao turned "The Great Salesman in the World" and wrote three times in the diary "I want to succeed!"


Among his partners, his own brother Zhang Hongfu, his brother dropped out of school after entering college and did audio sales. In 2007, he joined Zhang Hongchao's second store and became his brother's first generation of franchisees.The younger brother is outward, bold, and Mi Xuebing City is determined to open the store to the world when he has not yet launched his name. Those who are familiar with the two brothers say that they are "dreamers".


And Gu Yun's Wang Yunan, there is a university science and engineering man's temperament. He has a black -frame glasses, a sweater, and a backpack.


However, in terms of tea drinking business, Zhang Hongchao brothers and Wang Yunan have similar choices and vision.


Both have been opened to join very early -the ice cream shop of Mixue Ice City is open to join, which is considered "two -way go": because of business red fire, less use of workers and high profits.Join money to join the ice cream shop; Wang Yunan started a business in 2010, opened the store in the second year, and when the business was good at selling hundreds of cups a day, he also decided to recruit franchisees.moon.


They also see the supply chain business after opening and joining.


Initially, Zhang Hongchao rented a house in a village in Zhengzhou and processed the ice cream crispy and ice cream powder to provide the relatives of the franchisees. By 2012, a ice cream powder factory was opened in his hometown.The city is settled and opened.In 2013, the store expanded too fast, and the raw materials and equipment were not available. This has become the opportunity to participate in the domestic catering industry exhibition and find more professional and capable suppliers.Henan Big Coffee Food Co., Ltd., and then there are Mixue Bingcheng Industrial Park.


Henan, Henan Mixue Bingcheng Industrial Park, Henan, which is one and a half hours away from Zhengzhou, has the core raw material production line of Mixue Bingcheng, including seven categories of sugar, milk, tea, coffee, fruit, grain, and ingredients.The raw materials are ice cream powder, milk tea powder, canned jam, etc. The production line of the first two powder is the largest production capacity -Money Snow Ice City must guarantee that the core raw materials are produced by themselves.


Although the establishment time was late, the clues of the ancient supply chain even appeared even one year earlier than Miyuki Bingcheng.Wang Yunan said in an interview that at that time, the franchisees were in a county. At 11 o'clock in the night, they went to Wang Yunan's house to pick up the goods at 12 o'clock.Franchisee, he said that Pharaoh, I really have a hard work, you are too tired for you to make milk tea.


Wang Yunan calculated with the partner, and took out the only 140,000 to buy a Chase to deliver the goods to the franchisee.He feels that franchisees should focus on opening the store, and delivery of goods can make franchisees more focused.The entire supply chain system also started at this time.


Today, Mixue Bingcheng and Guyu are giants in the sea area joining and supply chain.Interestingly, Zhang Hongfu once expressed his outside and appreciated Gu Yue and Xixi Tea. He believed that Xizhu pulled the industry height, and the supply chain of the Guyan was steadily fighting.Willing to accept the investment of this institution.



difficulty


Although they do the supply chain business, the difficulty of Mixue Ice City and Gu Yan are very different.


Most of the products of Mixue Ice City are the mode of water+jam+cans. The jams and cans are resistant to storage. The most fresh fruit is lemon and orange, which is most convenient to save in the fruit.


However, a considerable part of Guya's products are fresh fruit tea, and the R & D team will develop new products such as seasonal fruit and consumer demand, such as fresh fruit tea and limited drinks.


The prospectus also shows that Guya's fruit tea accounts for 51%of the number of sold cups. In 2022, more than 81,600 tons of fresh fruits were purchased, with more than 30 varieties.Buyers.


Fresh fruit categories are large, large, and the conditions for preservation and transportation are very harsh. Therefore, compared with the honey snow ice city, the cold chain of ancient preservation and transportation fruit needs to be more complicated and powerful.


Gu Yan established 23 warehouses in various places, with at least 327 distribution teams and a number of third -party cold chain logistics partners.Take a bayberry produced in Yunnan as an example. It will be sent to the local cold storage premature cold, and then take the cold link to the storage base. Finally, it will be sent to the franchise store. The whole process will not exceed 7 days.




▲ Figure / Visual China


There are many types of fresh fruits, and the preservation requirements are different. There are 5 temperature areas in the warehouse of Guyu. Dairy products are placed in warehouses from 2 ° C ~ 4 ° C. Tropical fruits are placed in a warehouse at 4 ° C ~ 8 ° C.-20 ° C warehouse, there is also a warehouse that is lower than the temperature but higher than the refrigerated temperature, and a ripe warehouse.Wang Yunan has requirements for the taste of the product. In order to keep the mango in a consistent mature state, he will put the mango in the warehouse first, and then distribute it to the franchisee.


In the prospectus, Gu Yan said that more than 75%of stores were within 150 kilometers of the warehouse, and provided more than 97%of stores with cold chain distribution services for two days.


There is also a gap between the two.There are 9001 ancient ancients, which are mainly concentrated in Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, and Guangdong, and the regionality is more obvious.There are 36,000 stores in Mixue Bingcheng, of which 90 % are opened in about 300 prefecture -level cities, 1,700 counties and 3,100 townships in China.


It can be seen that the demand for raw materials for Miyuki Ice City has a greater demand for raw materials and a wider range of stores. It tests the efficiency and capabilities of the supply chain system in a wider and sinking area.


In the 550 -mu Henan Wenxue Mixue Bingcheng Park, in addition to the production base, there is also a warehousing and logistics center of about 150 acres.There are more than 2,000 trucks every day in and out of the box. A box of fresh lemon, canned fruit, ice cream powder and two different sweet syrup are transmitted from the conveyor belt of 2030 meters under the instructions of the single person.Trucks, warehouses across the country, and stores in various places.


In this warehousing center like this, in addition to Wenxian, Henan, Chengdu, Zhaoqing, Shenyang and Urumqi have one. In 2021, Mixue Bingcheng began to expand warehouses, and large and small warehouses were added, and there were more than 20 in the country.As of September 2023, Miyuki Bingcheng has achieved a 12 -hour reached within 12 hours in more than 90%of the county -level administrative divisions across the country.


In addition, the price of Mixue Bingcheng is concentrated below 10 yuan, adhering to the low-cost strategy, and the price of ancient products is 10-20 yuan.Reduce prices in the supply chain and saves costs. Honey snow ice city is more urgent than ancient times.


Mixue Bingcheng chose to march upstream. In 2020, a lemon planting base was established in Anyue, Sichuan, which greatly reduced the acquisition price of lemon.It is the choice of Honey Xuebing City to cooperate with the place of origin and build a plant in the place of origin.The prospectus also introduced that Mixue Bingcheng has five production bases in Henan, Hainan, Guangxi, Chongqing, and Anhui, with an annual comprehensive production capacity of about 1.43 million tons, while Gu Yan does not have so many production bases.


In contrast, there are many fresh fruits, and the speed of product updates is fast. The difficulty lies in the transportation and preservation of fresh fruit. Most of the raw materials of the core of Mixue Bingcheng are convenient for transportation and preservation. The main difficulty is how to ensure supply.The supply system of Gu Yan and Mixue Bingcheng is closely related to its own products and prices, which adapt to each other and influence each other.


This has also led to the limited range of supply chain radiation in Guya. So far, it has not been in Beijing and Henan. Wang Yunan said in an interview with the Southern Metropolis Daily that the expansion of Guya stores is from the supply chain.Where is the store of Gu Yan?Therefore, northerners are not aware of this tea.


And Mi Xue Bingcheng is a giant beast. The huge body limits the efficiency of the supply chain, and the development speed of new products is very slow.


The "2022 China Beverage Industry Product Report" released by Caimen shows that in the first three quarters of 2022, 50 brands launched more than 1677 new products, with an average of 11 new products per brand.Mixue Ice City may have a new product in the first quarter.Niche fruits, Mi Xue Bingcheng dare not use it, the amount is not large enough, there is no way for all stores to sell.


When the tea brands are rolled out, Mixue Ice City seems to be able to be an outsider.



Who is more friendly to franchisees?


In Wang Yunan's narrative, Gu Yan's first franchisee was a young girl who just graduated.She paid the 1500 yuan franchise fee and went to Gu Yi's first store to follow the master to learn technology.One Sunday, she was going to take a vacation, but when she saw that she was too busy, she stayed to help clean up and went off work.On that day, Wang Yunan relieved her a 5,000 yuan franchise fee.


When I was in the store, I did n’t know how to choose the site because I had no social experience. Wang Yunan helped her find it for three months to find a place where there was a large traffic and no tree to block the door.Later, the business of this shop was better than the direct -operated store.


In the background of Wang Yunan's character, altruism is a keyword.According to the cover news report, a university classmate said that Wang Yunan was "old mother". His happiness was not how much money he had, but how much money everyone made together.Every time I start a partnership, Wang Yunan I earn will divide with everyone and will not let others suffer, so everyone is willing to follow him. There are several core members of Gu Yan, namely Wang Yunan's entrepreneurial partner when he was in the university.


Gu Yan had no fame at first. It was Wang Yunan's character and everyone's sip that attracted some franchisees and opened 70 stores.However, this kind of sip is easy to encounter a bottleneck. At that time, because half of the 70 stores struggled on the profit and loss balance line. Later, the franchisees were not sure if they could make money and hesitated to enter the game.Wang Yunan's choice is to pull the profit of himself as only 5%, and only earn 5%.Later, in an interview, he said, "At that time, why was he willing to pull the price of the goods very low. We felt that they would fatten them first. Let them make money first, and then we make money."


This is Wang Yunan's way of thinking: What he does is to B business, the franchisee is his own customer, the customer lives well, and the brand will not be bad. He is willing to think about the problem from the perspective of the franchisee.


Gu Yan's logistics distribution frequency is two days, which is more frequent than other brands in the same industry.There are three reasons for increasing the core of the delivery frequency: many franchise stores are women, and they can't move such heavy goods. Gu Yan's logistics is a place designated by the franchisee, not left at the door;The degree is not high. Too much purchase at a time, sometimes it is unclear. Once the raw material expires, it will either cause food safety problems, or it becomes loss and affect profits.The storage space is reduced, and franchisees can use more places to make money.


But the price of this distribution is well labeled.安徽一位古茗加盟商李栗告诉每日人物,配送服务需要用钱来买,实时新闻“一个月1000多元。实时新闻如果是UA Batch开在学校附近的店,寒暑假不开门,replica sneakers也要给这个钱,因为你On this logistics line. "


In Li Li's feelings, the company's "Lis" atmosphere has become thinner and thinner in the past two years.Because it is difficult to expand outward, the increase in Guya stores is mainly densely opened by dense stores.She has seen it with his own eyes that there are three ancient ancients in the same business district.


Perhaps in order to reduce the difficulty of management, Gu Yan encouraged old franchisees to open more new stores. Her store opened in 2020. One year later, she supervised the door and asked her that there was a good position not far away. Do you want to open it?"If you don't open it, find someone else to open it," Li Li had to choose to open the store.


In Gu Yan's prospectus, the GMW growth rate of the same store was written on the homepage.Mo Ying, an investor who has been concerned about the tea industry for many years, gave his interpretation: the growth of the same store is an important indicator of the industry's evaluation of the quality of the store. It refers to the performance growth of the same store.It can always be improved by opening more stores, but if the same store does not grow, the income of franchisees is getting smaller and smaller. Looking at it for a long time, the brand will lose its core customers and expand and grow fuels.


It can be said that the growth of the same store is closely related to the profits of franchisees, the density of the store, and the brand acquisition ability."For example, you open a store, 2 million this year, another one more than 500 meters next year, which obviously diverts your customers. Your income will become 1.5 million next year, and the new one is 1.5 million. This total income is 3 million.But the same store has fallen. "


At the same time, this data does not have to be disclosed. Place 9.4%in a prominent position. It can be seen that Gu Yan is proud of this.


But the franchisee Li Li also questioned.Her first store, the profit in 2020 was about 180,000, and by 2021, there was only "100,000".She suspects that the company is counted according to flowing water rather than revenue -last year and this year, Gu Yan began frequent preferential activities, especially this year.9 yuan 9, and I will give you two second cups and half price on Thursday, and then live broadcast every time, what kind of activity will be given for takeaway ... "," For example, my shop sells today10,000 yuan, my revenue may be only 5,000 yuan. "


In Guyi's prospectus, an average of more than 3.1 stores for more than 2 years of old franchisees, while Mi Xue Bingcheng opened average 2.2 stores per franchisee.Li Li recalled that the company will screen the old franchisees in the past two years and promote the new store for old franchisees.In addition, there are additional requirements for the owner of the single shop -the owner of the single shop will take 20 days a month, not less than 6 hours a day, and wearing a red brand on the hat to facilitate electronic monitoring.6 hours away from the store, you need to report to the supervision.Because she couldn't stand this way of working. This year, Li Li turned and invested in the catering industry. She said angrily, "Isn't it good to go to KFC to be a store manager? I don't need to invest."


Franchisees who have opened three stores do not need to punch in, but there are other stealth requirements, such as constantly opening a new store; no problems can be occurred in the store, problems occur, and check in.


On the other side, there are many contradictions between Mixue Bingcheng and franchisees.


Around 2016, Miyuki Ice City should be as rich as the menu as possible and add fresh fruits, but the operation is not as convenient as before. The efficiency of the cup becomes lower. It also requires franchisees to have warehousing equipment and management capabilities.


The purchase cost of products has also risen with the complexity of the product. For franchisees, money is getting worse and difficult to make money. If you want to earn the same money as in the past, you can only open another new store.Originally, the price of the product was low, and the profit margin was small, and the competition between franchisees and brands was amplified -the brand rely on squeezing franchisees to make money, and franchisees make money by opening a new store.




▲ Figure / Visual China


There is no regional protection range in Mixue Ice City.When joining the earliest opening, there will be no another honey snow ice city within 1-2 kilometers, but the smaller this range, the smaller it will be.An old franchisee told the daily characters that in Beijing, just 100 meters apart, another store next to his store was circularly played "Honey Snow Ice City Sweet Honey". Like Gu Yan, "The key is that you now nowWithout opening, the company lets others open. "


The number of franchisees is large, and the management difficulty becomes greater.Mixue Ice City is like a giant beast, and a group of large franchisees are also fed, but as soon as the big franchisee turned around, it may be a fierce competitor."The sweetness of Bingcheng", the founder Wang Wei was once the big franchisee of Mixue Bingcheng in Bengbu, Anhui.



The end of the tea


A well -known public relations director of tea once expressed to us that in 2023, the tea brands were almost rolled to death, and the variables were too large.


War is fierce.Some are fighting a price war, such as the price of like tea to reduce the price, enter the price belt of 10-20 yuan, and look at the sinking market dominated by third- and fourth-tier cities; some are still grabbing beaches.Yueyue took a step by step, and opened the 3000th store.In addition to tea Yan Yuecai, most brands have embarked on the road of joining, expanding, and listing. In November 2022, he insisted on the turning of happy tea direct -operated in the ten -year -old direct business and opened to join. In 2023, Naixue's tea and music musicTea has finally loosened to join.


Investor Mo Ying believes that Wandian is like Huashan's sword, and listing is the brand equipped himself with another lifeboat. On the one hand, it has social influence. On the one hand, it has social influence.Funding is always good. "


After joining and expanding, it is another crossroad.We must focus on the supply chain of assets, like tea hundreds, honey snow ice cities, and ancient times, or light figures, and cooperate with Chabai Road like Charity Cha Ji to cooperate with the giants in the supply chain?


In Mo Ying's opinion, tea and coffee brands are not in the end to do the business of to B. For example, Starbucks, which is directly operated, has strong management and service capabilities to serve users directly.Joining is also a good choice, but it also has certain requirements for the company's management capabilities, strategy, and supply chain construction, and "Since the business of franchisees, then everyone’s values are important."Infinite expansion, it is likely that they will lose both.


At present, there are already 650,000 stores in domestic tea, and the chain rate has reached 50%. The space for incremental competition is limited. The existing competition will be more fierce, and it will be a greater challenge to all brands.


"Even the current head brand, from 5000+ stores, in just a few years, everyone has not faced cruel stock competition. At present, it can only be seen that Mixue Bingcheng has no opponent at this price belt, 10The chain rate below below is slightly more than 30%, which is lower than the average industry of 50%, so Mixue Bingcheng still has greater space and fewer opponents. "Mo Ying said.




▲ Mixue Bingcheng January 2024 Prospectus


The price belt of 10-20 yuan is the largest in the entire tea track, and it is the largest number of head brands at present. "It must be the most competitive."


In the entire market, Mo Ying is most optimistic about Mi Xue Bingcheng. "Extremely cost -effective determines long -term stability." Other brands need time to prove themselves.


But the weakness of Mixue Bingcheng is that the digital ability is not strong enough.Although the prospectus mentioned the construction of digital capabilities many times, according to the communication between Mo Ying and the franchisee, this is not good enough. "The brand's management ability for terminal stores may be weaker.It is necessary to digitize solutions. If you just treat franchise stores as customers, you do n’t need to know too much, as long as the customer is purchased here in the brand. "


Although Gu Yan was restrained by the supply chain of fresh fruit, the advantage was that there were 19 provinces that did not open stores, and there were no stores in Beijing and Shanghai. There was enough room for growth. This is a guarantee of growth.


Tea drinks ipo, sprint thousands of shops, build supply chains, and do TOB business, but no matter which direction, "the prerequisite for capitalization is the quantity, the premise of long -term stable development is quality."Can tea be drinking or delicious.


Reference materials:

1. Southern Metropolis Daily: Interview with the founder of Gu Yan Wang Yunan: Do not pay much attention to "Wandian", Tuodian depends on the supply chain

2. Taizhou Merchant Magazine: The young people of the town created the "Milk Tea Kingdom" -Wang Yunan, the founder of the ancient tea drink

3. Cover news: 0 to 9000, decrypt the road of entrepreneurship for 13 years

4.fbif food and beverage innovation: Guo Yunan, the founder of Gu Yan: The core of the ancient life is the altruisticism

5. Sanlian Life Weekly: a new tea industry chain behind a perfume lemon

6. Sina Finance: I regret joining Honey Snow Ice City

7. Late LatePost: Become the largest chain brand in China: Honey Snow Ice City Growth History

8. Entrepreneurship State: Selling 200 million glasses of lemonade in a year, but Mixue Bingcheng does not rely on this to make money


The article is original for daily characters, and infringement must be investigated


Hello everyone, this is the first weekend of 2024. The new language of our 21st issue is related to animals.




Today, in the recommendation of many tour guides in the Coco, the red wolf feeds the net red wolf has become a new local tourist project.This wolf has gone through human feeding for more than half a year, and has grown from thin bone to beads to round and jade, from trembling to shaking tails, from what to eat to pick and pick three ... Among them, is it the twist of the wolf, or the evolution of the evolution.fall back?What kind of changes have it experienced?

At the same time, it has never stopped discussing around the net red wolf for more than half a year.Some animal protection agencies have called for prohibited feeding, and some people think that human feeding has saved the life of the wolf's increasingly reduced wolf, and some people compare the wolf to the worker, saying that it takes off the "wolf Big Jiji gowning shirt"...

Behind the story that looks quite absurd, there is a question worth thinking about: is it a wild wolf full of wild but not full, or is it a net red wolf that does not have to be hungry but without heaven?


Text | Liu Xuan

Edit | Yifangxing

Operation | Circle



Looking for a celebrity wolf


"If you can encounter an Internet celebrity wolf in the morning, then my fortune will be good all day." Before departure, Coco's tour guide Zhang Xiaolong thought.


This day is December 14, 2023, this is the last group he brought this year.In 2023, he is also the fourth year of his tour guide and leader. He usually takes a group to the most of the one -day tour, and the number of people ranges from a few people to a dozen people.They follow the route of Golmud -Kunlun Mountain -Cocoici.But now the temperature is close to minus 20 degrees, and it is covered by snow in the sky.


At the same time, the weather is cold, and the foraging of the wolf is more difficult.Others have issued an appeal of "cold weather, feeding more" on the social platform, worrying that the celebrity wolf is frozen and hungry.


After the name of the net red wolf launched in the human world, many tourists have come.In 2023, Zhang Xiaolong received a total of sixty or seventy tourists who came to see the celebrity wolf.He is strictly forbidden everyone to get out of the car. Visitors can only open the window to take pictures in the car, but feeding depends on personal voluntary.Because he has the place where the celebrity wolf is out, several friends will also be ventilated with each other, so he is now a good player to find the celebrity wolf.


▲ The Tibetan antelope group encountered by Fan Xixi.Photo / Interviewee provided


Coco Xili net red wolf, race wolf, professional dog (not), age is unknown (very old), and there are many versions on the rivers and lakes away from the wolves.Wolf groups; some people say that because of the injury of the hind legs, they became the burden of the wolf group, and they were expelled.


In the first half of 2023, the net red wolf yin was wrong with Mountain Walk (with City Walk) near National Road 109. At this time, the gear of fate began to rotate.


At that time, the net red wolf was thin, and his eyes were godless. The characteristics revealed all over and down were: fragile products, accidentally touched.In the earliest videos circulating, at the beginning, the net red wolf was a passing driver master. The egg yolk school sent by the driver and master opened the door of this new world.


Later, it went further and further on the road of the egg yolk. From the previous hunger and full meal, to the life of a chicken and a fortress, the people who passed by could not help but lament: "It's not that the wolf king can't afford it.It is more cost -effective. "


▲ Ignore the feeding snow cake.Picture / network


Compared with half a year ago, the net red wolf was another look.It was on the way in August of the previous year, Fan Xixi went to Tibet to travel back to Tibet.At that time, the net red wolf was far from being fat, which was similar to Erha's body. It was thin, the tail was drooping, and the yellow hair was mixed with a little black.But at this time, Fan Xixi found that its eyes had changed, without the fierce wolf, but "the eyes were clear and stupid."


Seeing that the car stopped, the net red wolf surrounded Fan Xixi's car from left to right, and finally came to the distance from the half -arm distance from the car.Feed signal.


The food feeded by humans subverted the recipe of the wolf.Now, most of its three meals are ham sausage and buns.It can be seen from the videos shot by many tourists or drivers that people usually take a mobile phone to take a mobile phone to take a picture and knock the glass."Here, here, eating here", the net red wolf's exclaiming of these humans is strange, walking calmly, picked up the ham sausage, and retreated to the roadside, and it was fast.


Between the Wolf Road and Tiandao, I chose the Internet celebrity wolf on the National Highway, a bite and a bun, a chicken legs, and from time to time, from time to time, the life of the afternoon tea was changed, and its life was changed.Essence



Find the net red wolf


Zhang Xiaolong is indeed a good hand to find a celebrity wolf.


His local relationship network played the role of radar.The friends who were traveling saw the net red wolf in front of him and sync to him. Zhang Xiaolong immediately led the two tourists on the day to "encounter".


At more than 11 noon on December 14 last year, passing through the Wuji Dragon Wind Palace, and then crossing the Kunlun Mountain Exit, the cocoa celebrity wolf appeared.Seeing the wolf, the two tourists in the group screamed excitedly: "I really saw the net red wolf!"


In the wind of minus 20 degrees, the net red wolf stopped two or three meters away from the car and waited for feeding.Its body is like a big fat dog in the neighbor's house, with a round belly, which is a second spring after leaving the wolves.Only from its drooping tail, it is still a wolf to distinguish it.The tourists on the car will feed it with the bread carried with them, and it is interesting.


On the same day, they stayed for about 5 minutes, and they were ready to leave after feeding and taking pictures.However, the net red wolf is still reluctant, one step back, as if it is confirming that "no longer gives a little bit".


▲ The net red wolf appearance in August 2023.Photo / Interviewee provided


In a sense, the change of the net red wolf also reflects the helplessness of life and the environment's strong ability to transform species.


At the beginning, people were more careful about its feeding. They first threw out an egg yolk or snow cake. Try it. Because it is too hungry, it does not refuse.


But slowly, it began to bless, from the initial thin bones to the current beads and round jade, it also lived more and more like one two.It confirmed that the sentence, "There are no dogs in this world, and there are many people who feed, the wolf becomes a dog," and some people are joking.


▲ Fat Wolf.Picture / network


Some careful netizens found that the net red wolf has now grown garlic -shaped hair, and the small belly has gradually increased.This situation is generally only appearing on the fat animals.Just in November 2023, someone took a short video, and he brought three big lamb chops to the Internet celebrity wolf.


So far, this wolf has begun to pick up some picky eaters. Before eating snow cakes, it is now smelling.Someone summarized the food feeded by people these half a year and found that the current net red wolf has a fixed recipe -like to eat egg yolk, ham sausage, burger, Orleans, fried chicken ...



Age threshold and domestication


In the book "Wolf: Behavior, Biology, and Conservation" by Biologist David, there is fierce and cruel competition between the wolves and the wolf.


With the increase of age, each male wolf is qualified to compete in the wolf position in the wolf group. The ending of the struggle is the most powerful male wolf to become the leader of this wolf group.And other male wolves either subtly or wanders everywhere, becoming a "lonely wolf."


This can't help remind people of those who reach 35 years old.


The "Research Research Report on Employment of Middle -aged and Elderly job seekers" released in Zhilian's recruitment in 2022 shows that age value loss has caused higher probability of tailoring.Questionnaire surveys show that 80.1%of middle -aged and elderly job seekers believe that the biggest difficulty of finding a job is age limit.


Today, 35 years old is an anxious age threshold.As if at the age of 35, everything is forced to draw a complete end.Maybe the last second you still accepted the leader's thumb attacking encouragement in the work group, and received a private message from personnel in the next second. "Let's talk about manpower."


On the Internet, there are countless news that are optimized.In August 2023, Red Star News reported that a public hospital in Shaanxi wrote the official documents of "not renewal" for employees outside the Shaanxi.On social platforms, some people tell that they are 35 years old and have been crowded by the company. They are transferred to the post salary reduction and survivor. They are denyed by the leader every day and forced the active resignation;Stress, careful every day, for fear of making mistakes, I will be optimized with excuses.


Aoyama Capital ’s consumption report in 2022 also shows that“ many places have been 35 years old, preferential policy, employment, marriage, and childbearing concepts, etc. Some are rigid regulations, and some are agreed, and they are all 35 years old. ”


▲ Figure / "Happy Express of Love to Go Home"


Various phenomena also show that in addition to the age threshold, the experience of net red wolves and human beings still has many same places.


The book "Guns and Steel" once wrote that among wild mammals that can be domesticated by humans, it is necessary to satisfy a variety of qualities such as rapid growth, breeding, and gentle personality in the circle.Among them, dogs are domesticated from some wolves.The changes made by the net red wolf for survival can be called the early precious picture of human taming wild wolves as dogs.


In a sense, humans who are pinched by life and work pressure are gradually domesticated.For example, you can gradually accept the workload of 30,000 salary of 3,000; for example, you can be busy for a day from morning to night, and you can only touch the fish for ten minutes in the bathroom;You can only smile and cooperate to obey ... as if you can only be hungry.


Some people also remembered that because of the remarks of "I haven't seen Gree's salary bar given me" before, Wang Ziru on the hot search.


At that time, in front of the camera interview and the boss, Wang Ziru said a stunning summary. For example, he said: "I once fantasized one day. If I could have such a period of experience in my career, I could follow it.Being around a top entrepreneur (looking at Dong Mingzhu), even if I do n’t do anything every day, I see how she meets. I heard what she said every day and what, and I think it is a happy thing."


This series of remarks triggered a huge discussion.Some people think that this kind of flattering has reached a somewhat uncomfortable level; but some people are also inconsistent for Wang Ziru and feel that as subordinates, they can be "valuable" in their own position; some people choose to enlightenment.I learn frame by frame. "


As the so -called, questioning the celebrity wolf, understanding the net red wolf, and becoming a net red wolf.



New wolf


Before being a tour guide, Zhang Xiaolong made a living for grazing, and he had a lot of opportunities to get in touch with the wolf.


Once, he saw seven or eight wild wolves, which was once he saw the most wolf.These wolves will not approach others at all, and they will run away when they see people.In contrast, he has a great interest in the celebrity wolf, because the net red wolf not only dares to approach the vehicle, but also dares to get close to others.


Today, the latest change is that the net red wolf has a younger brother.In the video released by netizen Yang Zi on November 15, the net red wolf brought a younger brother.Another wolf, who is unwilling to be hungry, has chosen to determine the new "employment direction", decided to take off the gown, and begged the celebrity wolf as a teacher."" ".


▲ The Cocoa Cymblian Wolf and its "younger brother".Picture / network


Generally speaking, the Internet celebrity wolf played the previous line. First, I taught everyone to be familiar with the driver's greeting process. The new wolf is responsible for watching and learning.It can be seen that the new wolf is obviously vigilant when eating, and the net red wolf has a light car and walks on the road.This red wolf is a mode of fat driving fat first.


Now, the wolf of the Coco Sili has been divided into two factions: the old school and the egg yolk school.The enthusiastic netizens chose to publish a book for the net red wolf to record its dramatic life.The novel is called "Rebirth of the Wolf King, and the whole egg yolk school at the start of the road".The full text of this novel is 257,000 words. At present, 1543 people are commented. They also received a high score of 8.7 in tomato reading. 123,000 people have read this book.


In this book, the incarnation of the net red wolf is Ye Yun. In the previous life, it was human, but it was reborn on the wolf's body by an accidental collision of a mud header. Since then, it has the memory of human beings and the body of the wolf.Life.


It seems that the Internet celebrity wolf tried to use its personal experience to try to wake up humans -wolf culture is useless, and they are disgusted themselves.As a controversial culture in the contemporary workplace, some people feel that instead of drifting in big cities, the bosses are painted with large cakes, adding various pressures, and provoking various internal fighting. "Happiness is theirI have nothing to do. I might as well leave Beishangguang, go back to my hometown, learn the celebrity wolf, and highlight a full stomach.


Wolf King: Do you know what is king?


Net Red Wolf: Do you know what is Wang Zhongwang?


The Internet celebrity wolf is changed by the environment, which is quite similar to the changes in the times.However, the violation of natural changes brought by this external force can be adapted to nature for a long time.


Compared with the net red wolf, the fate of the little fox with similar stories is more bumpy.Jimu News reported that in the Kanas Scenic Area in Altay, Xinjiang, a little fox went down the mountain to find food. After seeing the tourists, they would feed them carefully.The little fox tails began to lose hair.Although the Altai Mountain State -owned Forestry Administration Burjin Branch has issued an announcement for banning feeding wild animals, it has little effect.


The announcement: "High sugar, high salt, high -fat and other ingredients in human food will cause wild animal obesity, affect the health of animal cardiovascular health, and cause skeletal deformation, hair loss, organ failure, and even death."


On December 25 last year, the net red fox, which was feeded by humans for a long time, came to the end of his life.The last memory that it leaves to human beings is a Weibo hot search-


#网#.


(The respondents in the text are all pseudonyms)


Past teleportation door: spiritual resignation, B, Kong Yiji's gown, Engel coefficient full, poor family, cliff -like aging, latte effect, lunch expansion, reverse houses, basis, exquisite shame, white rice rice, white rice rice, Mental diving, idle anxiety, small earning youth, death smile, workplace avatars, exquisite money -saving, ice studies, not buying clan


"Work in Beijing and live in Huanjing." With the distance between the space, the area around Beijing has become the end of countless northern drift An family.

In those imaginations about the future, the Beijing property market has experienced dreams for several years.In 2016, housing prices in Beijing soared, the highest price of Yanjiao rose to 40,000 per square meter, and the real estate of Dahaoshang County was sold to 30,000.According to the data of housing prices in China, the average increase in house prices in Beijing -Tianjin -Hebei cities at that time, while the average increase in house prices in the Pearl River Delta cities was 23%.

In 2017, with the restriction of purchases, house prices fell all the way, basically cutting.Huaxia Happiness and other real estate companies represented by the Peacock City project have become difficult to pass the house on time due to mines.Many construction sites are quiet, and the delivery is repeatedly extended. Some people wait for the house to get married, and some people wait for the house to go to school ... The plan is disrupted, and life is covered with a layer of haze.

Drifting in Beijing, going or staying, the ring of fate was thrown in the fate of Beijing, which gave the North Drifting's expectations about home.Turning in the times, the Beibei Huanjing Dream, which was imagined at first, seemed to be far away from these tens of kilometers.




Text | Cao Tingting

Edit | Yifangxing

Operation | Circle




Those who dare not accept the house



After a lapse of four years, Yu Ke officially saw the house she bought in the big factory Peacock City, but she did not dare to collect the house.


On the day of the room, she encountered an elevator failure.Go down to the ninth floor, the elevator is stuck in place.Fortunately, the door can still open, and a group of four talents have not been trapped.She and her friends chose to walk the stairwell and felt afraid of it on the road.


Yu Ke bought the peacock city, which is a key project built by Huaxia Happiness, which can be called an Internet celebrity.Many people were unable to buy a house in Beijing and chose to buy it in Beijing to realize the dream of "working in Beijing and living in Beijing".Yu Ke's house was bought in 2019. It was once bad. Two years later, in November last year, she finally received a notice of receiving a house.


But other problems were encountered during the house inspection.For example, part of the entrance hall of the unit building is hollowed out."The design is very unreasonable. If you encounter a rainy day, you can get an umbrella in the building, take a few steps and take an umbrella, and it is easy to have water." At the same time, it is also easy to give birth to worry about the high -altitude falling objects.They hope to add a layer of top before receiving the house.Various complaint calls have been promoted for several months, and they were promised to agree to add the roof of the house. The happy owners also made a special trip to give a flag. As a result, it was not added until the house was closed.


There are also owners that the screws of their own windows are loose, and there are problems with the wall materials.


▲ Looking up from the hollowedout hall, the window sill is densely set.Photo / Interviewee Confer


What makes Yu Ke feel more aggrieved is that in the notice of receiving the house, because the actual measurement area of the house is larger than the plan, there must be approximately 2,000 yuan in developers.She felt unfair. "The house was so bad for so long, the compensation for the extension of the delivery was not mentioned, and we had to collect a sum of money."


One more thing is disturbing. Although the house is paid, the real estate certificate cannot be handled, which also affects the transaction.Moreover, the price has not yet arrived, and the price has fallen long ago.At the beginning, more than 17 per square meter. According to the statistics of Anjuke, the average price of new houses in Dahachang County in January this year is less than 13,000, which is equivalent to a decrease of about 5,000 yuan per square meter.She bought the house 110 square meters and lost more than 500,000.


"It is false to say that you don't regret it, or you should buy it later." When Yu Ke bought the house, the property market around Beijing was at the end of rushing.In 2016, housing prices in Beijing soared, and the houses of Dachang County were sold to 30,000 per square meter.According to the data of housing prices in China, the average increase in house prices in Beijing -Tianjin -Hebei cities at that time, while the average increase in house prices in the Pearl River Delta cities was 23%.However, at that time, it was the parabolic line of housing prices around Beijing.


In the past two or three years of waiting for the house, the same North Drifting buyers who have been like her have paid too much price for this dream of Beijing.


No one said when the earliest time was quiet.Near in October 2021, the owners have not received any notice that the card point contract stated.Someone went to see the construction site, only to find that when he stepped on the big thunder, it was rotten.In the middle, due to the reasons such as the epidemic and atmospheric pollution, the owners did have received several stops of work, but no one thought it would be bad.In the following two years, in order to get the house, everyone spontaneously built a group and defended rights, and carried a heavy pressure than housing loans.


Today, many owners are still waiting for developers to pay liquidated damages.According to the contract, the seller paid the buyer to the buyer to pay the purchase of one thousands of liquidated damages on the day, which is a lot of money.


At the beginning, when it comes to liquidated damages, the owners can basically only get the reply of "no money".Some owners proposed to deduct property fees, but they were rejected by the two groups by the property and real estate.Later, under the coordination of the local government, the developer agreed to re -calculate, and there was no following.


Under the uncertain factors, like Yu Ke, many owners dare not accept the house.When the house was handed over for nearly a month, she found out a number. There were thousands of households in the community.



Dream of Beijing



"Charming around Beijing City, yearning for beautiful Langfang"


"One Beijing City, Four Peacock City"


A few years ago, such a few simple slogans could easily hit the hearts of countless people.


In the propaganda of the real estate of Peacock City, "Dream" and "Happiness" are high -frequency words, and everyone believes that the future is expected.The reason for supporting this dream is not him. It only needs to be "close" before Beijing -"living in Peacock City and working in Beijing". It has become another path of "happiness" in Beijing to realize the "happiness".


This house was originally the wedding room of Yu Ke and her husband.30 -year -old Yu Ke is from Xinjiang, and her husband is from Anhui.On the eve of her marriage in 2019, she and her boyfriend who also drifted in Beijing planned to place their home.Beijing's housing prices are unattainable, but the nearby Langfang City Da Fang County can buy three -bedrooms with a tiptoe.


A home that belongs to his own is probably the thoughts of many northern drifting people's hearts.In a roundabout way, is it a dream that can be left?


The "Yalan Garden" community bought by Yu Ke belongs to the component of "Chaobai River Peacock City", which is considered a later project.The Chaobai River Peacock City is the earliest urban -level project in the "Four Peacock City". Among all the city of Peacock City, it has the significance of landmarks.


▲ Sales Department of Peacock City.Photo / Interviewee Confer


On the other side of the Chaobai River, it is Beijing.The "Fangtong Bridge" that has not been built across the river, connects Hebei Plant County and Tongzhou District, Beijing, symbolizes a distance close to Beijing.


"Separated from Beijing Bridge" was the biggest reason why another home buyer Luo Huilan decided to borrow money to buy Peacock City.Before buying a house, the family rented in Yanjiao, and the son had to work to work for three or four hours at work.The newly bought house was near the factory bridge. She felt that when the bridge was repaired, the son's commute time would be greatly shortened.


For them, this bridge is simply a bridge of happiness.


But the road to construction was a bit bumpy, and the bridge waited for three years in the plan.In the mouth of the intermediaries, the time to pass the bridge has been changed again. According to the latest news from the Beijing Daily, it is expected to be opened to traffic in September 2024.


This kind of imagination of space distance has allowed Peacock City to experience the enthusiastic era of house prices.Since Beijing's implementation of the purchase restriction policy in 2010, a large number of just needed to spill on the region of Beijing.During the period, housing prices in the region of Beijing were several times doubled from thousands of yuan. The prices of Yanjiao and large factories once exceeded 30,000 yuan. House prices in Xianghe, Yongqing, Gu'an, Bazhou and other places also exceeded 20,000 yuan.


In 2015, it was the hottest period of peacock city around Beijing.At that time, buying a house depends on the eye disease.Speaking of the magical experience of buying the peacock city, Yuan Xiaolin still remembers it.At that time, in Beijing's North Third Ring Road, he had to pay the number of 30,000 yuan. Through the live broadcast of the webcast, he got the number plate to be qualified to buy, and then went to the on -site selection.


▲ A sales department of Langfang in 2015.Photo / Interviewee Confer


Selecting a house is particular, whoever shakes the number, and the family can only get one person.The time of choosing a house is limited, and one person will be replaced in 30 seconds.


At that time, people who did not buy a house or even made a big sales building. Yuan Xiaolin remembered that those people pushed the railings outside the sales office and broke into the hall and refused to leave.That day, she took a small ticket to the Finance Office, "after entering, it is like no money."In the end, it cost more than 200,000 more than expected, but Yuan Xiaolin felt that she "picked up a cheap."


More often, for the North Drifting, it is because they have no choice to pin happiness on the Peacock City.For example, Yue Portugal, who rode motorcycle to work, in 2015, she was watching 500,000 in Tongzhou in her hand. When she met the "strictest purchase order" in Tongzhou, at least three consecutive years of taxes, she stopped her outside the purchase of a house to buy a house.Essence


The 500,000 down payment, to stay in Beijing to work, the place she could choose at that time was only around Beijing.


At that time, the Peacock City, around the scene of the house, was just a wasteland, nothing.She felt a little panicked.However, thinking that in Beijing, I still felt that "there must be a house first anyway."In the end, after being introduced by a friend, she started the house of Peacock City.Garden houses, more than 8,000 yuan per square meter.


Liu Shulei, an intermediary who has worked for more than ten years in Langfang, Hebei, also acknowledged that in 2015, the house also had considerable investment attributes. "Many people think that grabbing is to earn."At that time, the sales department, "Like the Spring Festival", many of the people who bought a house were young North Drifting office workers.For the most exaggerated time, someone directly swiped 8 credit cards to buy 4 suits.



Running and stalling



In the hottest market, some people even referred to the first year of the golden age of the Beijing property market in 2016.With such happiness and longing, not only ordinary north drift, and even Huaxia's happy employees will choose to buy a house in Peacock City.


Yu Ke was a happy employee of Huaxia.After entering the job in 2016, she experienced the highlight period of the company.Less than a year after joining the company, the company's stock price was almost doubled.At that year's headquarters annual meeting, Huaxia Happiness directly sent the BMW key to employees.The group leaders are generous, and the annual red envelopes are scattered like sprinkler. Some colleagues grabbed more than 2,000 yuan a night.


It was also that year, Huaxia Happiness rushed out of Hebei with a sales of 120.3 billion, ranking eighth in the national housing company.


The rapid growth of its performance is inseparable from the heavy warehouse region.According to the official website, the earliest peacock city appeared in 2006, located in the Yongding River area south of Beijing.In the following four years, the Peacock City settled in the Grand Canal, Chaobai River, Badaling and other areas, respectively.


However, when the head was coming soon.In 2017, Langfang, Baoding, Zhangjiakou and other places issued a purchase restriction policy.Since then, the price of crazy Beijing property market has gradually fallen, almost cutting.


After the 90s, Li Yue also purchased the peacock city when he was working in Huaxia."House prices have reached 30,000, and they have been down after the purchase restriction. At that time, I was very anxious, for fear that I couldn't afford to buy it." When she saved enough money in 2019, she finally shot at the price of 18.


▲ The high -rise building of Dachang County.Photo / Interviewee Confer


But house prices have not risen again.Since 2020, colleagues have discussed more in private discussions on the company's debt, and the company's welfare has gradually shrunk.In 2020, the year -end award of employees was canceled.In 2021, a 200 yuan washing card was gone.


This situation continued until "thunderstorm".According to financial reports, the number of Huaxia Happiness employees fell from the highest 27,956 at the end of 2017 to 15.447 million at the end of 2021.Among them, the sales staff dropped from 20,000 to 476.


The peacock "stumbled", the gap of money could not be covered, and extreme situations such as stopping work and extended houses appeared.


In Huanjing, the minesweeted real estate companies are not only Huaxia happiness.Starting in the ring of Beijing, it has declined in Huanjing, and has become the fate of these batch of housing companies in Beijing.


On behalf of real estate companies, there are also Rongsheng Development and Long Kitai.Originally, they were happy with Huaxia, and they were called "Hebei Sanjie", and they later had their own booing.


After Huaxia's happiness fell, Rongsheng developed into a representative of Hebei real estate companies.In 2016, Rongsheng's development sales scale exceeded 100 billion yuan. After Huaxia Happiness suffered a debt crisis, Rongsheng continued to expand the scale and achieved overtaking.In 2020, Rongsheng Development exceeded the 121 billion sales target set at the beginning of the year.One year later, Rongsheng's development sales surpassed the previous year, reaching 134.5 billion.


But this is only temporary. For three years, Rongsheng developed that losses have expanded to 19 billion to 25 billion yuan.


The loss of housing companies, falling on the head of ordinary people, may be rotten, extended to the house, and the quality is not closed ...


In those two years, some Rongsheng owners also had suffering, and people could only express resentment on social platforms.Someone has finished paying the payment, and the real estate certificate has not been handled for two years; someone repaired from the day of delivery. The door of a storage room has not been repaired for several months.


Long Jitai, who was once known as "Bao Bao", also slipped with the times.In early October 2021, Long Kitai and a number of real estate subsidiaries ranged more than ten days.


Behind the cracks of the capital chain, some construction sites under the name of the name of the capital chain also happened.The owner who has Baoding has waited for three years, and once wanted to refund it, and he could only continue to wait.The owner said, "There is no way, there is no way." "Leaving your hometown to wander outside, this is our first house." Some owners finally waited for the delivery day, and the developer was silent. "Because of a choice of mistakes, let yourself make yourself a choice of mistakes, let yourself make himself make yourself a mistake, let yourself make himself a mistake, let yourself make himself make yourself a mistake.Falling into endless abyss. "


There are also many fate of housing companies around Beijing.


On June 20, 2022, Hongkun Weiye Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. did not timely settle the principal and interest of domestic and foreign bonds in a timely manner during the 30 -day exemption period, triggering multiple bonds crossing breach of contract.According to a real estate researcher in the Finance News Agency, Hong Kun Weiye was in a crisis of liquidity.


Zhuoda Group, one of the largest real estate companies in Hebei, has moved to the end in a decisive way.


According to media reports such as "Southern Weekend", since 2016, due to the failure to obtain the pre -sale permit for illegal sales, the sales offices and construction sites of Shijiazhuang have been seized one after another.In 2017, the crisis of the redeeming of the wealth management product of Zhuoda Group began to outbreak.In May 2019, the Yuhua Branch of the Public Security Bureau of Shijiazhuang City issued a notice, and the actual controller of Zhuo Da Group surrendered.


At this point, the infinite approach to Beijing's housing companies in Beijing has gone to silence after rapid development.During the ups and downs, the ordinary people's home dream was also swept by it.



Dream and reality



Drifting in Beijing, going or staying, the ring of fate was thrown in the fate of Beijing, which gave the North Drifting's expectations about home.At the beginning, "40 kilometers away from Tiananmen Gate and 7 kilometers of Tongzhou auxiliary center", now the dream is broken separately.


But this is just a beginning. The impact of buying a housing around Beijing on people's lives and even destiny is still continuing.


Yu Ke's dream of three generations can live in three generations.The down payment was 900,000, and half of them were borrowed from relatives and friends.Everyone was not at ease, and more than a total of more than ten people borrowed money to make up."If you have a little money at hand, you will pay it first."Before 2023, the two diligently repaid the down payment borrowing.


But mortgage is still very stressful.The interest rate of more than 5%, the interests were returning interest for the first time, and the two were very distressed.Beginning early last year, there was a sum of money.The year -end award, stock wealth management, and borrowing a sum of money at home, and even using consumer loans. After about half a year, Yu Ke and her husband finally paid off the mortgage.


During the long waiting process, 46 -year -old Sheng Hongwang wanted to break the confession.He is also a "old North Drifting" who bought a house in the Great Factory Peacock City.


Around 2008, he came to Beijing and opened two restaurants.But life is unpredictable, and the days of smooth and smooth water have not continued.A few years ago, he still entered 40,000 catering bosses a month. After the epidemic, the restaurant had to close the door. He originally expected to rent the shops bought at the Peacock City to relieve the pressure and encountered stop work.


In order to bear 11,000 yuan per month, since May 2022, he began to borrow money.Later, he even had to use online loans to "loan loans".The deadline is 20 months, and 10,000 yuan requires more than 600 yuan per month.In order to return to the snowball -like debt, he went to Chengdu alone to continue to do the old bank and make catering, and his wife and children returned to the northeast from Yanjiao.


▲ Figure / Visual China


It is impossible to enter the house on time, which means that many life plans are interrupted.


A northern drifting single mother bought the peacock city and wanted to ask for a guarantee, but later, for two years, she had to continue to bear the rent of about 5,000 yuan per month, and the guarantee became a burden.


There is also a 43 -year -old Hebei man who sold the house at home, made the old man's pension, and changed two sets of peacock city houses in the same community.According to the plan, when the child is born, the two houses themselves, one parent.But with the delay, it is planned to be bubble.


During the period when the Peacock City was stopped, Luo Huilan, 60, Henan, perhaps one of the most desperate people.In April 2020, she borrowed more than 200,000, enough for more than 500,000 down payment, and bought a wedding room for her son in the Chaobai River Peacock City · Yalan Garden.In order to repay the mortgage, her husband began to "work day and night". Four months later, her husband died suddenly on the construction site.


After the house was stopped, Luo Huilan's body and psychology slowly collapsed.In order to save money, she can eat the leftovers that can't be sold in the supermarket and wear old clothes lost by others.Gradually, she couldn't sleep, she couldn't eat, and she followed her throat pain, headache, and stomach pain.After spending money to see the disease, the doctor said that it was too psychological pressure.


Huanjing Dream is roughly expected.Fortunately, with the support of the policy of maintaining the diplomatic relations in 2022, the stagnant peacock city has gradually recovered, and people's confidence may gradually recover.As of September 30, 2023, Huaxia's happy peacock city residential project has been delivered to 12.47 million square meters across the country. The opening rate of the opening in 2023 has reached 100%.%.


After all, if there is a house to accept, who wants the real estate you can buy to continue bad?


At present, there are still many real estate real estate waiting for the house. Many buyers are still like Yu Ke. They will eventually receive their late houses. However, with a few years, the people who collect their houses may not be longing for that year.Look.


Yu Ke found that with the passage of time, the owners who were hesitant to collect the house were also differentiated.She obviously felt that recently, the atmosphere in the group has changed.At the end of the bad tail, everyone's goal is consistent. Although there is still a problem with the house when receiving the house, the weight that time is pressed on everyone is different. After waiting for two years, some owners don't want to consume it anymore.


She felt that she was tired. After 58 days of delivery, Yu Kefu collaborated and decided to accept the house first.In recent years, she and her husband rented in Daxing, the rent is cheaper, and the cost is two hours of commuting.The child will go to kindergarten next year. They will not consider living in Beijing -the house in Peacock City for the time being shelved, with the dream about the house, and press the pause button together.


(The respondents in the text are all pseudonyms)



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